Novak Djokovic’s run at his 25th Grand Slam and eighth Wimbledon title get a real test on Tuesday, when he faces third seed Felix Auger-Aliassime for a place in the semifinals (and a likely meeting with Sinner). It’s the first meeting between the two since 2022 and the first time they’ve ever shared a grass court.
The draw so far
Djokovic has been efficient rather than dominant so far. He opened with a four-set win over Yibing Wu (6-4, 7-5, 6-4, 6-4), cruised past Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets, then needed four sets again to see off Roman Safiullin (that had a great tournament). That win moved him to 106 career Wimbledon match victories, surpassing Roger Federer’s all-time record at the tournament.
Auger-Aliassime’s route has been more turbulent. The Canadian opened with three straight-set wins before a five-set epic against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the round of 16 – 6-7(4), 7-6(6), 6-3, 6-7(2), 6-1, four hours and 26 minutes on court, 26 aces, and six of seven break points saved. It’s his first Wimbledon quarterfinal since 2021, when he lost to eventual finalist Matteo Berrettini, and snaps a run of four straight years failing to escape the second round at SW19.
Head-to-head and form
The official ATP H2H is level at 1-1, both meetings dating back to 2022: Djokovic won in straight sets at the Rome quarterfinals, Auger-Aliassime beat him in the less important Laver Cup later that year. Neither result tells you much about a grass-court Wimbledon quarterfinal in 2026 though, and this will be the first time these two have ever played each other on the surface.
A few numbers ahead of the match:
- Rankings vs. form: Auger-Aliassime is world No. 4 (4,390 points) against Djokovic’s No. 8 (3,760), and the Canadian also leads the ATP Race (No. 6 to Djokovic’s No. 11) – mostly due to Djokovic’s early French Open exit and less tournaments played this year. Despite the ranking discrepancy, Djokovic has better Elo rankings, especially on grass.
- Grass in 2026: Djokovic is 4-0 on the surface this year but has needed four sets in three of those four Wimbledon matches. Auger-Aliassime is 7-2 on grass this season.
Auger-Aliassime is now a very solid and consistent top 10 player but it still feels he has some way to go for the absolute top level on tour. He commented on the meeting with Djokovic: “It’s simple, I need to play my best. There’s no going through if I don’t play my best… Playing here is one of those matches that you want to have and that you train for and prepare for.”
Betting Predictions for Djokovic vs Auger-Aliassime
Djokovic might not have the physical edge of other top players such as FAA anymore but he’s still among the best ones mentally. He enters the match as the betting favorite at odds around 1.58 ( -175)
The Serb has looked sharp so far, even though he was slightly frustrated with his game in the last round. He should be very dialed in here, he’s usually stronger the longer the majors go on. This is far from an impossible challenge for Auger-Aliassime but the Serb’s mentality and experience might once again be the edge. Djokovic to win in 5.
