Clay and grass are in the rear vision mirror as the US Open rapidly approaches in the tennis calendar. With the year’s final Grand Slam just a month away, we breakdown all you need to know about the men’s and women’s event, including who’s favorite, current odds, possible dark horses and a few early betting tips.
Check our top betting sites if you want to place a bet on the US Open tournament.
Favorites to win the men’s 2025 US Open
Is this year’s men’s US Open one player’s to lose? Here’s our analysis.
- Jannik Sinner
Favorite heading into the US Open is world No 1 Jannik Sinner, for obvious reasons. The Italian has been the best player on hard courts in the past year and a half. He posted a 55-3 record on the surface last year (42-3 outdoors and 13-0 indoors) and he’s 7-0 this year bringing his overall record to 62-3 since the start of last year.
That’s a 95% win rate which rivals peak Rafael Nadal on clay just to put things into perspective. He’s also been superbly impressive recently winning Wimbledon by beating Carlos Alcaraz relatively easily last month. He nearly beat him at Roland-Garros too, failing to convert several match points.
To top it off, Sinner is also the defending champion in New York, having dominated the event last year. There’s no denying that he’s by far the first favorite to win it again in 2025.
- Carlos Alcaraz
Losing Wimbledon stung for Alcaraz so expect him to show up in New York with a renewed sense of purpose and motivation. Sinner is now only one Grand Slam behind him with a chance to put them at level at the event. Alcaraz won’t like that.
He’s also the only player who has beaten Sinner more than once on hard court in the past 18 months. If anybody is going to do it it’s likely to be Alcaraz and as a former champion in New York he has a good shot of getting it done–albeit not as likely as Sinner.
- Novak Djokovic
Even though he’s likely to go empty handed at the Grand Slam level much like last year, Djokovic still commands enough respect that he’s the number three favorite to win the event. He’s quite behind the two top names according to tennis bookmakers (more on that below) but still well ahead of everybody else.
This has to do with the rest of the field being largely unimpressive in 2025 combined with Djokovic’s relatively strong track record at the US Open. The Serb isn’t done yet and he’ll give his all to challenge for the trophy.
- Alexander Zverev
Zverev remains in the mix of players, despite his poor record at the pointy end of majors. The German is not enjoying the best of seasons, but still possesses a strong game which – in combination with his serve – will be a danger for other players.
He famously came within a few games of winning this event in 2020, falling in a fifth-set tiebreak to Dominic Thiem. With his number of grand slam trophies still at zero, Zverev will be determined to change it and perhaps he gets lucky.
Possible surprises at the men’s 2025 US Open
While the players above are the ones likely to win the event there are others in the mix who could potentially spring a surprise on us.
- Jack Draper
Out of the rest of the field Jack Draper seems the most likely to potentially win it. He has the best odds per the bookies, and has made a big step forward this year, becoming the best version of himself we’ve seen to date.
He’s got the serve and the tools to get it done and made a tremendous run at the event last year, getting all the way to the final four. Naturally people expect something similar from him this year, being one of the top British players, and he might get it done provided that injuries don’t prevent him.
- Taylor Fritz
Last year’s finalist Taylor Fritz proved that he has Grand Slam winning potential in his racquet. He couldn’t get it done against Sinner in 2024 because the Italian is just too good but perhaps with that experience and another year under his belt things will be different.
He’s got the sixth-best odds for a reason and will enjoy massive crowd support as an American, which could prove crucial.
- Ben Shelton
Another American who has a semi-final in New York under his belt is Ben Shelton. The 22-year-old will have a decent chance this year as well, courtesy of his massive serve which helps tremendously on a fast court like this one.
Shelton loves to play in New York and will also have massive crowd support. He’s been steadily improving as a player and feels as though it’s just a matter of time until he has a major-winning run. Perhaps it’s this year.
- Andrey Rublev
While Andrey Rublev has generally been rather underwhelming at Grand Slams he’s a player who has the skillset to get it done. That’s really important because without that you can’t win no matter how good you’re playing.
He’s had a decent year and he’s proven to be capable of beating some top names which is a prerequisite to winning a Grand Slam. Admittedly, the stars would have to align for Rublev to come away from New York with silverware, but at least on his best day, it’s a possibility.
Men’s 2025 US Open odds
Here is how tennis betting sites are seeing each player in terms of their chances to win the 2025 US Open:
- Jannik Sinner – 2.00 (+100)
- Carlos Alcaraz – 2.79 (+179)
- Novak Djokovic – 9.00 (+800)
- Alexander Zverev – 13.00 (+1100)
- Jack Draper – 15.00 (+1400)
- Daniil Medvedev – 17.00 (+1600)
- Ben Shelton – 26.00 (+2500)
- Taylor Fritz – 25.00 (+2500)
- Matteo Berrettini – 34.00 (+3300)
- Joao Fonseca – 41.00 (+4000)
- Jakub Mensik – 51.00 (+5000)
Early men’s US Open betting tips for 2025
A month is a long time in tennis, given there are two Masters 1000 between now and the US Open. Still, as things stand, here are some of our early tips for the event.
- Jannik Sinner to make the final
This shouldn’t be shocking to anybody if they’ve followed tennis recently because Sinner has been absolutely on fire. Unless an injury happens we can’t see anybody stopping Sinner en route to the final. His only real rival is Alcaraz, who he won’t face until the final if it happens.
Nobody else in the draw is good enough right now and that’s why we’re going with this rather unsurprising pick of Sinner going to the final. He’s 62-3 on hard courts in the last 18 months. Think about that for a moment.
- Carlos Alcaraz to make the final
Another rather unsurprising pick is Alcaraz making the final. We think he’s going to take this event very seriously and when he does that he tends to make the final. Plus he’s been the other best player in the world besides Sinner so there is a reason why they’re given similar chances of winning.
Looking at the rest of the field – who are given rather very slim chances – it becomes clear that bookies expect this final. From everything we’ve seen this year and recently, we agree.
- Novak Djokovic to not make the semi-final
Djokovic had massive issues at the US Open last year losing to Alexei Popyrin in the third round. We predict a similar result in 2025 as well. It’s not so much that Djokovic can’t make the final or play well, it’s just that there is an increased number of players who can beat him.
Bookies will still be high on the Serbian making the final four, considering he’s done so at each of the year’s first three majors. However, with his motivation levels likely wavering at this point of the year, there’s a good chance that the likes of Draper or Mensik could knock him off before the semi-finals.
Favorites to win women’s 2025 US Open
This year’s women’s US Open might just be one of the most interesting ones in recent memory. There are about 10 players who could win it and neither has a greater chance than the other. Keep reading as we have an early attempt at decluttering all of that parity for you.
- Iga Swiatek
After winning the Wimbledon trophy with a double bagel, Iga Swiatek has to be considered favorite to win the US Open this year. She seems to be back to her crushing ways and as a former champion in New York she has shown she can do it.
She’s also a player who has the most impressive head-to-head against most of the rest of the field. This makes it more likely that she’s going to emerge on top, compared to some of the other contenders this year. Read more about Swiatek and her racquet.
- Coco Gauff
The amount of love Coco Gauff gets in New York can’t be understated and it makes her play much better. She’s also shown that she’s really coming into her own recently as well, winning the US Open in 2024 and smashing Swiatek in Madrid earlier this year.
She might not have played well on grass this year but returning home will energize her quite a bit. With a 31-10 record on the year she’s far from having a poor season. In fact this looks eerily similar to how her season was unfolding the first time she won the US Open.
- Aryna Sabalenka
This has been a year of heartbreak for Aryna Sabalenka who has made two Grand Slam finals yet lost both of them despite being the favorite to win. She’s been showing some vulnerability for much of this year and that’s why we only have her as third favorite to win the US Open.
Still, her game is overwhelming and her serve is devastating. Both of these weapons will help her have a deep run in New York. Out of all the other players she’s the most likely to get her hands on the trophy once more.
- Mirra Andreeva
Mirra Andreeva has yet to win a Grand Slam but she’s rapidly getting to the level of being a contender. She’s a very consistent player who doesn’t really beat herself and has shown to be strong under pressure.
That’s precisely what a player needs to do to win a major crown. While we’re not as high on her as we are with Swiatek, Gauff or Sabalenka, with a bit of luck she could find herself lifting her maiden trophy.
Possible surprises at the women’s 2025 US Open
Women’s tennis has always been famous for its incredible parity. With that in mind, let’s see who might surprise at this year’s US Open.
- Madison Keys
Madison Keys has been a superb player for most of her career. She never won the big one until this year in Australia where she defeated Sabalenka in the Melbourne final. While an ascension didn’t follow she’s certainly a player who could win given the right circumstances.
Her game – when on – is devastating and she’s made the final in New York before. She could very well do so again.
- Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina remains a player of tremendous potential. She’s yet to channel that into another Grand Slam trophy but she is the kind of player who can do it in the right circumstances. The US Open is a good place for her to do that given that she finds her level on faster surfaces. If she does, she’ll be dangerous.
- Amanda Anisimova
Making the Wimbledon final was a huge moment of vindication for Amanda Anisimova whose talents were never in question. While the 6-0 6-0 loss was a massive failure, she has a chance to bounce back in New York on home soil.
- Qinwen Zheng
Qinwen Zheng is another player whose skillset is well suited for the US Open. She has a good serve, plays aggressive and has generally done really well on hard courts. Doing well at the US Open is not something uncommon for her either so she deserves a place on this list.
Women’s 2025 US Open odds
You’ve seen our takes, now here’s what tennis bookmakers think heading into the women’s US Open in 2025.
- Aryna Sabalenka – 3.50 (+250)
- Iga Swiatek – 4.00 (+300)
- Coco Gauff – 5.50 (+450)
- Mirra Andreeva – 8.00 (+700)
- Elena Rybakina – 13.00 (+1200)
- Amanda Anisimova – 15.00 (+1400)
- Madison Keys – 17.00 (+1600)
- Qinwen Zheng – 17.00 (+1600)
- Jessica Pegula – 23.00 (+2200)
- Naomi Osaka – 23.00 (+2200)
- Jasmine Paolini – 34.00 (+3300)
Early women’s US Open betting tips for 2025
We’re only a month away from the US Open so it’s time for some early predictions. These bets are the ones that have the most value early, because the odds will be adjusted as we get closer to the event.
- Iga Swiatek will win the US Open
Right out of the gate we’re going bold and we’re taking Iga Swiatek to win the event. This is based on just how well Swiatek played at Wimbledon. She has seemingly figured out everything wrong with her game, and is looking a lot like the woman that won 37 in a row a few years ago.
It won’t be easy and Gauff will be a massive hurdle for Swiatek, but we think she’s going to be able to get it done.
- Coco Gauff to make the final
Gauff will fall painfully short of defending her title. We’re tipping this simply because the American is playing really well this year and a return home will do her good. She will re-energize, have the backing of the crowd and the US Open event is generally a place where she has played well.
While we think that she won’t win the event, she will make the final. Out of all the players besides Swiatek we think that her game has the best shot of carrying her to the final.
- Aryna Sabalenka won’t make the final
While Sabalenka has made two finals this year, we don’t think she’ll make another one. She’s been quite vulnerable recently losing to players that she generally doesn’t lose to. There are many players who are playing solid tennis right now and the US Open does allow surprises to happen.
For this reason, betting on Sabalenka to be the victim of an early upset is a strong value bet heading into New York.
