The 2026 Indian Wells draw is out, setting the stage for 12 days of mouth-watering tennis in Californian desert. Often referred to as the fifth slam, the BNP Paribas Open is chock full of big names this year. I’ve poured over the men’s draw, analyzing each player’s path to the title. Read on for a full breakdown of all the different permutations, including which early matches to keep an eye out for, who might surprise, and my final weekend predictions.
Check also our analysis of the women’s draw at Indian Wells.
Men’s 2026 Indian Wells draw: Key takeaways
- Djokovic drawn in Alcaraz’s half
- Alcaraz vs De Minaur, Sinner vs Shelton seeded for repeat of AO quarters
- Sinner’s quarter is full of dark horses
- Fonseca could face Khachanov second round, potential round-of-16 vs Sinner
- Tsitsipas vs Shapovalov headlines the first round matches
- Medvedev and Rublev in draw, despite being stuck in Dubai
Men’s Indian Wells draw 2026: Quarter-by-quarter analysis
Quarter one
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (1)
- Alex de Minaur (6)
- Alexander Bublik (10)
- Casper Ruud (13)
- Luciano Darderi (20)
- Valentin Vacherot (24)
- Arthur Rinderknech (26)
- Cam Norrie (27)
Dark horses
- Grigor Dimitrov
- Sebastian Korda
Early matches to watch
- Alcaraz vs Dimitrov (R2)
- De Minaur vs Korda (R2)
Top seed Alcaraz is the red-hot favorite to claim his third title in Indian Wells, but the Spaniard doesn’t have the easiest of paths.
He’ll likely open against former world No 3 and 2021 semi-finalist Dimitrov, who plays Terence Atmane in the first round. Prevail, and he could face either Rinderknech or Botic van de Zandschulp – both tricky opponents, the latter of which defeated him at the US Open 18 months ago. Alcaraz will feel less threatened by his potential fourth-round match up, with Ruud or Vacherot the front runners, unless Nuno Borges makes a push.
Attempting to make their way through the lower half of the top quarter are Bublik and De Minaur, who could well meet in a repeat of their Australian Open round-of-16 match. That was a one-sided encounter with De Minaur racing past the Kazakh, and it’s hard to see a different outcome here considering the conditions will only favor the Aussie more.
Each have a few speedbumps to navigate first, however, with dark horse Korda – who won Delray beach late last month – a possible second-round match for De Minaur. Former champion Norrie also sits in De Minaur’s section. For Bublik, he may well face up-and-coming young American Michael Zheng in his opener, with the in-form Darderi potentially awaiting the winner.
Bottom line, I largely expect this quarter to be a repeat of the Australian Open: De Minaur will beat Bublik and look strong, but will get found out when he comes up against the world No 1.
Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz to beat De Minaur.
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Quarter two
Seeds
- Novak Djokovic (3)
- Taylor Fritz (7)
- Daniil Medvedev (11)
- Jack Draper (14)
- Francisco Cerundolo (19)
- Jiri Lehecka (22)
- Corentin Moutet (31)
- Ugo Humbert (32)
Dark horses
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
- Hubert Hurkacz
- Sebastian Baez
- Alex Michelsen
Early matches to watch
- Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar (R1)
- Djokovic vs Mpetshi Perricard (R2)
- Draper vs Fabian Marozsan (R2)
Five-time champion Djokovic heads up quarter two, looking to break a two-match losing streak in the desert dating back to 2024. The Serbian has an excellent shot at doing so, as he’s been placed in a favorable quarter.
Fritz is his likely quarter-final opponent, against whom he owns a 11-0 head-to-head. Moutet, Cerundolo and Draper are the seeds in his immediate section of the draw, none of whom have beaten him before. The latter is the best bet at giving Djokovic a run for his money, but given how early Draper is into his return from injury, I’m not giving him a serious chance at this year’s Indian Wells.
If Djokovic was to continue his trend of losing early in California, a player like his first-up opponent Mpetshi Perricard would be the type to upset him. The Frenchman gives those on the other side of the net no chance to develop any rhythm with his big, booming serve. Still, I’m tipping the world’s best returner to find a way through him.
On balance I do expect Fritz to navigate the lower section of this quarter, despite the American having a few health concerns. Medvedev is his biggest threat, but who knows whether the Russian will even be able to travel to Indian Wells in time (he’s currently stuck in Dubai). Wildcard Jodar is one to watch in this section given his form in the first round of qualifying, as are Baez (12 wins already this year) and Michelsen (American with a game to suit these conditions) as well.
Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic to beat Fritz.
For more picks, don’t miss our post on betting tips for Indian Wells with value bets and more.
Quarter three
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (4)
- Lorenzo Musetti (5)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (9)
- Flavio Cobolli (15)
- Andrey Rublev (17)
- Frances Tiafoe (21)
- Brandon Nakashima (28)
- Arthur Fils (30)
Dark horses
- Matteo Berrettini
- Gabriel Diallo
- Gael Monfils
Early matches to watch
- Jenson Brooksby vs Alexei Popyrin (R1)
- Zverev vs Berrettini (R2)
Quarter three is by far the most open one at this year’s Indian Wells. Of the eight seeds, none have made the final here previously, and only two have made the last four.
Zverev is the highest seed in this quarter, but has a poor track record here (13-10) and arrives off the back of a poor showing in Acapulco where he lost to world No 84 Miomir Kecmanovic. The German potentially has former world No 6 Berrettini in his opener, followed by a possible clash against No 28 seed Nakashima in the third. Tiafoe or Cobolli are potential round-of-16 opponents.
For Musetti, the No 5 seed, likely has the mercurial Marton Fucsovics in his opener, before a potential blockbuster against No 30 seed Fils. Rublev and Auger-Aliassime also lurk in this section, provided the former gets here from Dubai in time.
I expect we’ll see a breakout from one of the lower-seeded players in this section, and it’s Tiafoe and Fils that grab my attention. Much has been made of Tiafoe’s offseason mindset shift, and while his results haven’t been stunning so far, they’ve been an improve on recent years. Coming here off the back of a run to the Acapulco final, and with the confidence of a previous semi-final appearance in Indian Wells in 2023, he’s my bet to get through the lower section.
As for Fils, he’s freshly back from a long injury layoff, but already has six wins to his name in the last month, two of which came against top-25 opposition. Backing him to go deep in Indian Wells is still a wild punt, but remember: this time last year he was widely tipped to become a top-10 player until injury struck. He’s back, he’s looking good, and I’m backing him to breakthrough here.
Quarter-final prediction: Fils to beat Tiafoe.
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Quarter four
Seeds
- Jannik Sinner (2)
- Ben Shelton (8)
- Jakub Mensik (12)
- Karen Khachanov (16)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (18)
- Tommy Paul (23)
- Learner Tien (25)
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry (29)
Dark horses
- Reilly Opelka
- Joao Fonseca
- Marin Cilic
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Denis Shapovalov
Early matches to watch
- Tsitsipas vs Shapovalov (R1)
- Opelka vs Ethan Quinn (R1)
- Khachanov vs Fonseca (R2)
Rounding out the men’s Indian Wells draw is an absolute cracker of a section. Sinner is top seed, but the big story here is all the dangerous unseeded players. Fonseca is the big headline, as he always is, but the likes of Cilic, Tsitsipas, Shapovalov and Opelka are all huge threats as well.
That said, I’m reasonably confident we’ll see the two top-eight seeds meet in the quarters.
Shelton has a tough path though. The No 8 seed plays either Opelka or Quinn in his opener – both big-hitting compatriots. I like his lefty spin better in these conditions though, so I expect him to get through. Waiting in the third round will likely be Tien, in what will be an absolute blockbuster of a match up that should determine who makes the quarters.
There’s a lot to like about Tien in this spot – he’s a defensive beast, arguably top-10 on hardcourts, thrives in slow conditions, and beat Shelton in their previous meeting last year. But when the stakes are high, my money’s always on Shelton, and I’m picking he’ll rise to the occasion to come through this one.
In the lower half of this quarter, I don’t see Sinner getting threatened. He’s got James Duckworth or a qualifier in his opener, followed by the winner of Tsitsipas vs Shapovalov most likely, then Fonseca, Khachanov or Paul in the round-of-16. Paul has played Sinner tight on a few occasions and could give him a headache if he’s firing on all cylinders, as could Fonseca if he catches fire.
It’s all a bit of a reach though, and despite Sinner having lost twice on hardcourts so far this year, he’s still largely invincible against opponents not named Alcaraz.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner to beat Shelton.
Final weekend predictions for 2026 men’s Indian Wells
- Semi – Alcaraz beats Djokovic
- Semi – Sinner beats Fils
- Final – Alcaraz beats Sinner
Two and a half months into the year, and I reckon we’ll get our first 2026 edition of Alcaraz vs Sinner. More info here for betting on the Indian Wells tournament.
There’s a case to be made for Djokovic taking out Alcaraz in the semis, if he makes it that far. The Serbian has beaten Alcaraz at least once each of the last three years and has proven that provided he’s healthy, he can make a big push.
My concern is that Djokovic’s motivation levels aren’t the same at the Masters level, so digging deep for that big push becomes less likely. I don’t think Alcaraz making the final is a given, but it’s more likely than Djokovic pulling off another heist against the New Two.
As for Sinner vs Fils, there’s every chance this will be a rout. Fils is a good player, and I’m high on him challenging for a top-five spot over the coming years, but not yet. He’s still a little raw, and on hardcourts, Sinner will expose his weaknesses in the same ways that Alcaraz did in Doha.
In the final, I’m tipping Alcaraz to extend his head-to-head dominance against Sinner. These conditions – slow, gritty, hot, a bit of wind – suit him much better than Sinner. Plus, I think he’s playing better tennis this year, and has more confidence, both in his own game and specifically against Sinner.
It won’t be one-sided by any stretch of the imagination, and hopefully it’s another epic, but my money is on Alcaraz to lift trophy number three in Indian Wells next Sunday. These are the announced prize money for the 2026 Indian Wells.
