It’s semifinal day for the women at Flushing Meadows, and for the first time since 1975 all four top seeds have made it this far. Here’s a preview for today’s matches, Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula, with our predictions and best bets.
Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina
Gauff had to dig in against Mirra Andreeva in the quarters, dropping the first set before turning it around with a second-set tiebreak and cleaning up her game almost entirely in the third to reach her first US Open semifinal since her title run in 2023.
Rybakina was similarly tested by Qinwen Zheng but came through in three sets behind a serving clinic, winning 32 of 40 first-serve points. The win also guarantees her the world No. 1 ranking regardless of how the rest of the tournament goes.
Their head-to-head is tied 1-1, with Rybakina taking the most recent meeting at this year’s Toronto semifinal, 5-7, 6-2, 6-2.
Predictions and best bets
Two players in great form and this should be a good battle to watch as they offer quite different styles on court. Rybakina enters as a small favorite among most bookies.
Her serve is the single biggest weapon on the court in this matchup, and on this surface it will give her some edge. Gauff’s movement and return game has been fantastic though and I think she can lift herself even higher (minimise the unforced errors for sure) and disrupt the flat-striking rhythm of Rybakina over three sets.
My bet: Gauff to win in three sets.
Bet on the WTA semifinals over at BetAnything (USA) or at Stake.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
Sabalenka survived a real scare against Linda Noskova, falling behind a break in the decider before recovering to win 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7) and extend her run to a sixth straight US Open semifinal.
Pegula also needed a fight, coming back from a set down to beat fellow American Emma Navarro 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, capping off a summer that’s already included finals in Washington and Cincinnati.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 9-4, including 2-0 at this event and a win over Pegula in the 2024 US Open final. But Pegula has the most recent result on her side, beating Sabalenka in straight sets at this year’s Berlin semifinal.
Predictions and best bets
The head-to-head history favors Sabalenka, and her hard-court dominance backs that up. These are two players that know each other very well and Pegula showed in their last meeting that her game plan can work in this matchup. I still think Sabalenka’s first-strike, heavy-hitting tennis and her renewed confidence after some shaky weeks will be enough to see her through to yet another final.
My bet: Sabalenka to win in three sets.
