The final Masters event of the 2025 season rolls around this week, and it’s bringing more than just prestige. The ATP Race to Turin is still wide open for those final few spots, making the Paris Masters the last big opportunity for the majority of players competing to make their mark before the season wraps.
Carlos Alcaraz will be the top seed, with Jannik Sinner also in attendance. With no Djokovic in the mix, these two are the clear favorites to lift the trophy. However, the Paris Masters traditionally serves up surprises, and occasionally, a surprise winner, so there’s plenty of value betting opportunities to be had. Read on as we break down where the value lies for the 2025 Paris Masters.
ATP Paris Odds and Favorites
Even with two clear favorites at the top, that doesn’t mean either is a lock to win. Let’s see how the bookies see this tournament unfolding based on the odds they’ve given each player:
Men’s 2025 Paris Masters Betting Odds
- Jannik Sinner @ 2.10 (+110)
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 2.50 (+150)
- Alexander Zverev @ 11.00 (+1000)
- Alex de Minaur @ 19.00 (+1800)
- Taylor Fritz @ 23.00 (+2200)
- Daniil Medvedev @ 29.00 (+2800)
After Sinner handily beat Alcaraz in the Six Kings Slam final, it’s no surprise to see him favored ahead of the Spaniard. There isn’t a massive gap between them, with Sinner priced at 2.10 (+110) compared to Alcaraz at 2.50 (+150).
The rest of the field trails behind quite a bit, and for good reason. Their level truly is far behind these two. The main question at this event will be motivation. Do the top seeds have any incentive to play hard at all, given the ATP Finals – a far more important event – is just around the corner?
Top Dark Horses for ATP Paris 2025
Our general assumption is that certain players will be more motivated than others. Here are the dark horses we’re backing this week:
- Alex de Minaur
- Andrey Rublev
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Alex de Minaur @ 19.00 (+1800)
De Minaur needs points, but he also needs trophies. That means he’ll be doubly motivated in Paris, and with a pretty favorable draw where the top name in his half is Zverev – who will arrive fatigued from his Vienna run – he’s got a real shot.
De Minaur proved last year that he can play well in Paris, making the semi-final. While it’s a new court and a new venue, the Australian has a really good record indoors this year with nine wins and one loss as of the time of writing. That, combined with the draw and the motivation, makes him our top dark horse pick.
Yes, he’s seeded and fourth-favorite at the bookies, but odds of 19.00 (+1800) make him a legitimate dark horse bet in our eyes.
Andrey Rublev @ 126.00 (+125000)
Rublev has a long history of being really good indoors, and while he hasn’t been impressive this year (only 4-3), the Russian should be more motivated than the rest in Paris. It’s the end of the season, most players are either looking to finish the year or have their eyes on the ATP Finals.
As he hasn’t really achieved much this year, this is a golden chance for him to redeem himself somewhat. What makes us like this pick even more is his draw, which is more than favorable. He has Shelton in his quadrant, who hasn’t played well lately, but also Sinner, who might have his eyes on Turin by the time they play.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina @ 126.00 (+125000)
Davidovich Fokina recently spoke to the media declaring that he’s never felt better on the court, and it’s somewhat true. While inconsistencies remain, the Spaniard has never looked better, and his career-best ranking of No 15 in the world proves just that.
He should also be rather motivated, as he too has a favorable draw with players like Zverev – who might be looking ahead to Turin – Medvedev, who seems eager to finish his season, and Lorenzo Musetti, who has been pretty lackluster lately. In such a half, it’s not inconceivable for Davidovich Fokina to make a push. And as we know, when he gets on a roll, he tends to go all the way – to the final, at least, so perhaps an each way bet is a good shout.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 81.00 (+8000)
Traditionally, the Paris Masters tends to feature at least one – if not several – French players overperforming. With the conditions likely falling on the faster side, we like the chances of the big-serving Frenchman. He’s got a decent draw with Musetti being the top name he might face early, and he just bested him recently in Brussels.
With the crowd firmly in his corner and the conditions favoring his massive serve, Mpetshi Perricard could go far with a bit of luck. He’s certainly been playing better lately, and indoors is where he generally looks his best.
Betting Tips and Value Bets for Paris Masters 2025
If none of the dark horses above strike a chord with you, then here are three other sharp value bets we’ve identified at the Paris Masters:
- Quarter four winner – Rublev @ 23.00 (+2200)
We’re doubling down on Rublev winning the final quarter, which includes Sinner. Again, it comes down to Sinner having played in two consecutive prior weeks, the Six Kings Slam and Vienna. Coming to Paris, he’s likely to feel some fatigue, and with the ATP Finals being so near, there’s a decent chance that Sinner won’t produce his best tennis.
In those circumstances, and with Rublev essentially needing a good result heading into next year, the Russian might just pull out a massive win over Sinner if they meet. And if they don’t meet? We still like Rublev’s chances to come out of that final quarter of the draw, as he’s the best player there beside the Italian.
- Quarter two winner – Alex de Minaur @ 3.40 (+240)
De Minaur played in the semi-final of the Paris Masters last year, and we’re backing him to do it again. He’s got a favorable draw where his biggest opponent will be Fritz, who has looked pretty shaky lately. Even so, it’s a decent matchup for him – they’ve played 10 times and de Minaur has beaten him five times.
He’s also likely going to be more motivated than Fritz, who will be looking ahead to Turin. But even if not, the performances haven’t been there for the American. He’s looked very vulnerable lately compared to De Minaur, who is looking great in Vienna.
- Lorenzo Musetti to lose third round – odds TBC
Musetti has put forward some really questionable performances lately where he has not played smart tennis. The pressure of possibly securing an appearance in Turin is clearly affecting him.
With the Italian likely to secure that this week, thanks to an improved level, he might come to Paris relaxed and not really fussed about the result. With a potential matchup against Lorenzo Sonego in round two – who is a very dangerous indoor player – and Medvedev or Jaume Munar in round three, we like the betting odds of him not making the quarter-final.
His level hasn’t been totally there, he possibly might not have any motivation left, and he might feel the effects of an emotional release after likely securing Turin this week. That, combined with his tough draw, is more than enough value for us.
