On Friday, February 21, the ATP 500 Rio Open brings us a good Round of 16 match between Alexandre Muller (World no 60) and Tomas Martin Etcheverry (World no 43). This clay-court battle features two players with no prior meetings, making it a tough one to predict. Muller comes off a big upset, while Etcheverry aims to lean on his clay-court experience.
Muller to upset again?
Alexandre Muller got his first ATP title at Hong Kong earlier this year and is clearly in form. He surprised most fans though in the first round as the Frenchman beat 18-year-old talent Joao Fonseca 6-1, 7-6. It was an impressive performance from Muller even though Fonseca looked a bit tired from a lot of games recently (winning from his first ATP title at Buenos Aires just last week!)
- 2025 Record: 6 wins, 3 losses (1-2 on clay before Rio)
- Clay Stats (Last 12 Months): 10 wins, 10 losses; holds serve 72.9% of the time; wins 27.9% of return games; converts 37.9% of break points (58 out of 153)
- Recent Results: Muller started 2025 strong, winning his first ATP title in Hong Kong on hard courts, beating Kei Nishikori 2-6, 6-1, 6-3 in the final. On clay, though, he struggled—losing in the Round of 32 in Argentina to Laslo Djere (3-6, 3-6) and in the first round in Rosario to Felipe Meligeni Alves (2-6, 3-6). In Rio, he turned it around, upsetting local star Joao Fonseca 6-1, 7-6(4) on Tuesday. Muller saved both break points he faced and won a close tiebreak. His career clay record is 233-147, so he knows this surface well.
Etcheverry, the clay expert
Tomas Etcheverry just beat another Frenchman, Corentin Moutet 6-3 7-6 on Tuesday and he’s aiming for a good week following his disappointing loss to Fonseca on home ground in Argentina last week.
- 2025 Record: 5 wins, 5 losses (1-1 on clay before Rio)
- Clay Stats (Last 12 Months): 15 wins, 10 losses; holds serve 76.0% of the time; wins 28.1% of return games; converts 39.7% of break points (77 out of 194), ranking 13th on tour
- Recent Results: Etcheverry’s year began with a semifinal run in Adelaide on hard courts, but clay has been up and down. He lost in the Round of 32 in Buenos Aires to Joao Fonseca (3-6, 3-6)—the same player Muller just beat. In Rio, he got back on track, defeating Corentin Moutet 6-3, 7-6(1) on Tuesday. He won 78% of his first-serve points (39 out of 50) and broke Moutet’s serve three times, dropping his own serve once. With a career clay record of 287-145, Etcheverry is surely a tough opponent on this surface.
Key Facts
- Clay Advantage: Etcheverry is more comfortable on clay, with a stronger hold percentage (76.0% vs. Muller’s 72.9%) and better break point conversion (39.7% vs. 37.9%). His career win rate on clay is 66%, slightly ahead of Muller’s 61%.
- Form Guide: Muller’s 6-1, 7-6 win over Fonseca shows he can compete here, even after a shaky clay start. Etcheverry’s 5-5 record in his last 10 matches matches Muller’s inconsistency, but his Rio performance so far has been solid.
- Surface Fit: Rio’s slow clay suits Etcheverry’s grinding style, while Muller has leaned slightly toward hard courts lately (63% career win rate vs. 61% on clay).
Prediction and Odds
Etcheverry has the slight edge looking at the stats and the rankings. He’s also the favorite among bookmakers at 1.44 (-225) while a Muller win gives 2.80 (+180).
We believe Etcheverry’s consistency and experience on clay should pull him through to the quarter’s here, but it might take three sets.
Betting Prediction: Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win in 3, at odds 3.65 or +260.
