ATP Adelaide 2026 – Betting Tips and Best Bets

The 2026 Adelaide International sneaks its way into the tennis calendar this week as the year’s first Grand Slam looms large. Those hunting last-minute momentum will be in action, with plenty of big names despite the event being hit by a slew of withdrawals already. Read on for a breakdown of all there is to know about the Adelaide International, from my dark horse picks to the latest odds and value bets.

Also, don’t miss our guide for betting on the Australian Open that is coming up shortly.

Adelaide International odds and favorites

A fortnight ago, the Adelaide International had stars like Novak Djokovic, Jack Draper and Joao Fonseca lined up to take the court. With all three withdrawing, here’s how bookmakers are pricing the favorites heading into day one on Monday:

Men’s 2026 Adelaide ATP betting odds

• Tommy Paul – 7.50 (+650)
• Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – 7.50 (+650)
• Sebastian Korda – 8.00 (+700)
• Brandon Nakashima – 9.00 (+800)
• Stefanos Tsitsipas – 9.50 (+850)

There’s still plenty of strength to the Adelaide field with former top-10 player Paul and current world No 14 Davidovich Fokina leading the odds to win at 7.50 (+650). Right behind them is Korda at 8.00 (+700), ahead of Nakashima on 9.00 (+800) and Tsitsipas on 9.50 (+850). Francisco Cerundolo and Ugo Humbert are right in the mix on 11.00 (+1000), as is Tallon Griekspoor at 12.00 (+1100).

Top dark horses for ATP Adelaide 2026

Events immediately preceding Grand Slams are rarely won by the betting favorites. That’s why I’m keeping an eye on the following dark horses heading into Adelaide this week:

• Jaume Munar 
• Gabriel Diallo
• Alexei Popyrin
• Reilly Opelka

Jaume Munar @ 17.00 (+1600)

A 28-year-old Spaniard? Must be a clay-court journeyman, right? Far from it. Munar has sneakily transformed himself into an excellent hard courter over the past year, accruing a sharp 22-16 record on the surface in 2025. That included a 6-0 record vs top-20 opponents, with wins over the likes of Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti.

Munar comes to Adelaide familiar with the Aussie conditions too – he’s been here for well over 10 days now, having competed in the early rounds of the United Cup. There, he held a match point against Taylor Fritz before falling in a deciding tiebreak. I’m high on the Spaniard’s chances coming into Adelaide, particularly since he’ll be happy to go all-in on this result.

Gabriel Diallo @ 19.00 (+1800)

24-year-old Diallo burst onto the scene last year, going 29-24 at the Tour-level and claiming his maiden title. The Canadian boasts a searing first serve and plenty of all-court athleticism to boot, making him worth a punt here at 19.00 (+1800). Simply put, if he gets his serve going, little else matters.

His top-20 record last year is a little bit of a concern (3-12) but with the fast conditions in Adelaide and time for improvement over the off-season, I’m happy to back Diallo at these odds.

Alexei Popyrin @ 26.00 (+2500)

My third dark horse is a local player who’s about as mercurial as they come. Popyrin showed a top-five level briefly in 2024 when he won the Canadian Masters, and in flashes at other times (he’s got seven top-10 wins in the past 18 months). However, he’s had plenty of moments where he’s swung to the other end of the spectrum too, spraying errors and taking bad losses.

Fresh off time with family and playing at home, these are the best possible circumstances for seeing peak Popyrin. I like his chances of making a deep run here.

Reilly Opelka @ 29.00 (+2800)

Taking on Popyrin in the first round is another of my dark horses, Opelka. The big-serving American towers at 6’11” and is a former top-20 player. Since coming back from injury last year he’s shown glimpses of what took him to that rank, with a run to the Brisbane final last January and wins over the likes of Djokovic and Alex de Minaur.

He’s also been in Australia for some time already, playing Brisbane last week and losing an epic 6-7(2), 7-6(7), 7-6(8) clash against Kamil Majchrzak in the second round. Similar to Diallo, should his serve get hot, there’s little anyone can do about it.

Betting tips and value bets for Men’s Adelaide International 2026:

Here are my betting tips for the Adelaide International this week:

1. Tsitsipas to win @ 9.50 (+850)

Before giving my case for Tsitsipas to win the Adelaide International, let me first explain why I’m not considering either of the top two seeds and betting favorites. 

Davidovich Fokina has proven time and time again that he doesn’t perform well under pressure – his four lost finals in 2025 speak to that. Playing as top seed for the first time in his career, I just can’t back the Spaniard to live up to these expectations. As for Paul, the American is a class act, but hasn’t won a match since the US Open. He needs more time on court before I’m willing to consider him.

That takes us to Tsitsipas. Until his downturn in form last year, the Greek had consistently been one of the best players in Australia over the past half a decade. He holds a 25-9 record at the Australian Open with three semi-finals and a final to his name. The massive Greek diaspora gets behind him, and the conditions seem to suit him perfectly too.

Throw in this background, with his very impressive United Cup last week – three wins from three, including a straight sets victory over Taylor Fritz – and I like Tsitsipas’ chances of carrying on his momentum in Adelaide.

2. Miomir Kecmanovic to beat Valentin Vacherot @ 2.00 (+100)

Kecmanovic has a track record of starting his seasons strong, with a semi-final run in Adelaide last year, a round-of-16 push at the Australian Open in 2024 and a host of other strong results in previous years. 

While he took a loss first round in Hong Kong last week, I think he’s undervalued here against Vacherot, who will still be getting used to being a favorite heading into matches.

3. Damir Dzumhur to beat Brandom Nakashima @ 3.60 (+260)

Another first-round match I’m looking to get involved with in Adelaide is Dzumhur vs Nakashima. Dzumhur is one of the best movers on the Tour, and with Nakashima coming into this clash with a short turnaround, I like the Bosnian’s chances. 

Nakashima will be hurting from his straight-sets loss to Daniil Medvedev on Sunday, and it would be no surprise to see him be a little mentally checked out here.