AO Predictions: Djokovic vs Machac and Mensik vs Davidovich-Fokina

Written by: David Barisic | January 16, 2025
jakub mensik

ATP Australian Open 1/16-Finals

Mensik – Davidovich Fokina: 17.01.2025 04:00 CEST

H2H: 1-1

Jakub Mensik has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Auckland, Jakub reached the quarterfinals, losing against Borges in three tight sets. Mensik won his opening match against Basilashvili in the Australian Open in four sets. Jakub was a better player throughout the whole match. In the second round, Jakub upset Casper Ruud in four sets yesterday. Mensik was great under pressure, saving seven out of eight breakpoints. Last year in Melbourne, Mensik reached the second round, losing against Hurkacz in five sets.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Adelaide, the Spaniard reached the second round, losing against Korda in straight sets. In the opening round of the Australian Open, Alejandro won the opening set against Shang 7-6. Juncheng retired in the second set when the Spaniard was 5-2 up. After that, in the second round, Alejandro trailed 0-2 against Auger-Aliassime but successfully turned the match around. Last year in Melbourne, Alejandro reached the second round, losing against Nuno Borges in straight sets.

Predictions and best bets:

According to the bookies, Mensik is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Jakub showed great tennis this season. On the other hand, Alejandro struggled in both matches here in Melbourne. Alejandro also spent almost five hours on the court in his last match against Auger-Aliassime and will definitely feel it tomorrow.

In our view, Mensik covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jakub Mensik -3.5 games handicap @ 1.83 | -120

Djokovic – Machac: 17.01.2025 09:00 CEST

H2H: 1-1

Novak Djokovic has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Brisbane, Djokovic reached the quarterfinals, losing against Opelka in straight sets. In the opening Australian Open round, Novak defeated Basavareddy in four sets yesterday. Nishesh kept the match tight, as we predicted. After that, in the second round, Novak won against Faria in four sets. He already has 10 titles here in Melbourne and is once again one of the biggest favorites to win. Novak reached the semifinals in the Australian Open last year, losing against Sinner in four sets.

Tomas Machac has won four of his last five matches. In the opening Australian Open round, Machac defeated Nagal in comfortable straight sets. Machac struggled in the third set, trailing 3-5. However, he reduced his unforced errors, won four consecutive games, and turned the set around. Yesterday, in the second round, Tomas defeated Opelka in a five-set thriller. Tomas trailed 1-2 but stayed calm when it was most important and turned the match around. Last year in Melbourne, Machac reached the third round, losing against Khachanov in four sets.

Predictions and best bets:

Looking at most of the tennis betting sites, Machac is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree here. Novak has had a favorable draw so far but played poorly in his opening matches. This will be his first big challenge this week. On the other hand, Machac has a lot of weapons, and we expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Machac covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Machac +5.5 games handicap @1.83 | -120

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David Barisic