AO Predictions and Odds: Sinner vs Rune and Michelsen vs de Minaur

Written by: David Barisic | January 19, 2025
sinner ao

ATP Australian Open 1/8-Finals

Michelsen vs de Minaur: 20.01.2025 10:30 CEST

H2H: 1-1

Alex Michelsen has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Auckland, Michelsen reached the quarterfinals, losing against Basavareddy in three sets. Michelsen won the opening round match against Tsitsipas in the Australian Open in four sets. It was a high-quality match overall. In the second round, Alex won against McCabe in tight straight sets. He served great throughout the match, not offering any breakpoints. In the third round, Michelsen upset Khachanov in straight sets. Alex saved all four breakpoints. Last year in Melbourne, Alex reached the third round, losing against Zverev in straight sets.

Alex de Minaur has won five straight matches. So far this season, Alex has only played in the United Cup, winning both matches. In the opening Australian Open round, de Minaur won against Van de Zandschulp in straight sets. After that, in the second round, Alex also defeated Boyer in straight sets. His toughest challenge was in the third round against Cerundolo. Alex won the match in four tight sets after losing the first set 5-7. Last year in the Australian Open, de Minaur reached the 1/8-Finals, losing against Rublev in five sets.

Best Bet for Michelsen vs de Minaur

When betting on the Australian Open, we can see that de Minaur is the big favorite in this matchup among bookmakers, but we disagree. So far this week, Michelsen lost only one set. Other than that, he was brilliant on the court. We expect a very tight match that could go either way.

That being said, Michelsen covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alex Michelsen +5.5 games handicap @ 1.83 or -120

de minaur at the 2024 australian open
Alex de Minaur

Sinner vs Rune: 20.01.2025 04:00 CEST

H2H: 2-2

Jannik Sinner has won 20 straight matches. In the Australian Open, Sinner defeated Jarry in straight sets. His last loss was in October in Beijing, losing against Alcaraz in the final. In the second round, Sinner defeated Schoolkate in four sets. Surprisingly, he lost the first set 4-6. However, he reduced his unforced errors and successfully turned the match around. In the third round, Sinner defeated Giron in easy straight sets yesterday. Jannik is the defending champion in the Australian Open. 

Holger Rune has won three of his last five matches. At the beginning of the season, Holger played in Brisbane, losing against Lehecka in the opening round in straight sets. In the opening Australian Open round, Rune defeated Zhang in five tight sets. In the second round, Holger won against Berrettini in four tight sets. Rune had a disappointing 2024 season and hopes for a better season this year. In the third round, Rune defeated Kecmanovic in five tight sets yesterday. Rune was trailing 1-2 and fought with cramps but successfully turned the match around. Last year in Melbourne, Rune was upset by Cazaux in the second round, losing in four sets.

Best Bet for Sinne v Rune

According to the bookies, Sinner is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Holger was on the verge of losing against Kecmanovic. He fought with the cramps and was not fully fit. On the other hand, Sinner is on a 20-match winning streak and is currently almost unplayable.

In our opinion, Sinner covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner -6.5 games handicap @ 1.73 or -137.5

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David Barisic