The final match of the US Open women’s singles is here, and it’s an absolute showstopper with world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka taking on home hope Amanda Anisimova for the title. Storylines abound heading into Saturday’s clash, with Anisimova looking to leave her Wimbledon double-bagel loss behind her, while Sabalenka chases a maiden Grand Slam in 2025 despite making the last four of each.
Who will have their happy ending? Read on for our preview of the women’s US Open final, as we look at the head-to-head, odds and form, before giving our prediction and best bets.
Tale of the tape – Sabalenka v Anisimova
Aryna Sabalenka US Open record
Overall: 34-6
Best previous result: Champion (2024)
Path to the 2025 US Open final:
- R1 – Rebeka Masarova (7-5, 6-1)
- R2 – Polina Kudermetova (7-6(4), 6-2)
- R3 – Leylah Fernandez (6-3, 7-6(2)
- R4 – Cristina Bucsa (6-1, 6-4)
- QF – Marketa Vondrousova (walkover)
- SF – [4] Jessica Pegula (4-6, 6-3, 6-4)
It’s been plainsailing for top seed Sabalenka in New York the past fortnight. She cruised through the first four rounds without setting the world on fire, before receiving a lucky break when the in-form Vondrousova withdrew ahead of their match. Most recently, she edged out Pegula in an armwrestle of a semi-final, her first real test of the tournament which she passed with flying colors.
Amanda Anisimova US Open record
Overall: 9-5
Best previous result: Round 3 (2020)
Path to the 2025 US Open final:
- R1 – Kimberly Birrell (6-3, 6-2)
- R2 – Maya Joint (7-6(2), 6-2)
- R3 – Jacqueline Cristian (6-4, 4-6, 6-2)
- R4 – [18] Beatriz Haddad Maia (6-0, 6-3)
- QF – [2] Iga Swiatek (6-4, 6-3)
- SF – [23] Naomi Osaka (6-7(4), 7-6(3), 6-3)
Anisimova has played scintillating tennis at the US Open so far, ripping through a challenging draw to make her maiden final at the event. Just one set was dropped through a relatively routine opening four rounds, but it was in the quarter-finals where Anisimova really turned it on. Less than two months after being double-bageled by Swiatek in London, the American reversed the result, knocking out the tournament favorite in straight sets. She then backed that up with a marathon victory over the red-hot Osaka in the semis.
Sabalenka v Anisimova head-to-head
Overall: 6-3 to Anisimova
Last five meetings:
- 2022 Italian Open – Sabalenka (4-6, 6-3, 6-2)
- 2024 Australian Open – Sabalenka (6-3, 6-2)
- 2024 Canadian Open – Anisimova (6-4, 6-2)
- 2025 French Open – Sabalenka (7-5, 6-3)
- 2025 Wimbledon – Anisimova (6-4, 4-6, 6-4)
Surprisingly, Ansimova holds the upper hand in the pair’s head-to-head, leading 6-3. It’s two wins apiece in the last two seasons, however, with this year’s meetings shared as well. Most recently they met at Wimbledon, where Anisimova ended Sabalenka’s campaign in the semi-finals.
Women’s US Open final odds
- Aryna Sabalenka – 1.50 (-200)
- Amanda Anisimova – 2.75 (+175)
Betting sites have Sabalenka as a moderately heavy favorite heading into the US Open women’s final, pricing the Belarusian at 1.50 (-200) to win. Anisimova is an underdog at 2.75 (+175), and is given a +3.5-game handicap at 1.91 (-110). Bookies have set the over/under market at 22.5 games, and have Sabalenka winning 2-0 as the most likely set betting market, paying 2.25 (+125).
Sabalenka v Anisimova expert analysis
The case for Sabalenka
Sabalenka is the epitome of consistency in women’s tennis. This stage of a tournament is commonplace for her – she’s made the semi-finals or better in 11 of the last 12 Grand Slams, and contested the final in six of those. The world No 1 has stood head and shoulders above the rest of the Tour this season, dominating with her big serve and power baseline hitting.
Sure, she’s failed to pick up a major title since this time last year, but doesn’t that make the case for her even more compelling? The Belarusian is simply too good – and too consistent – to keep missing out on the silverware. Plus, Anisimova is a big reason why she didn’t prevail at Wimbledon, so she’ll be motivated to avenge that loss.
The case for Anisimova
When Anisimova is in her element, it’s about as good as tennis can be played. The American has been red-lining for much of the past week, simply eviscerating any ball that comes within range of her racket. When she does this, it matters little who is on the other side of the net: Swiatek, Osaka, they both fell to her power.
The 24-year-old will have massive crowd support on Arthur Ashe too. While this may add a little pressure, on the other hand, the pressure is off because she literally cannot do any worse than she did the last time she took to the court for a Grand Slam final. The experience of receiving a beatdown at Wimbledon may well have helped her relax coming into this one.
Our 2025 Women’s US Open final prediction & betting tips
- Sabalenka to win @ 1.50 (-200)
- Three sets total @ 2.20 (+120)
- Sabalenka to win 2-1 @ 3.75 (+275)
It’s great for the sport when it feels like there is genuine jeopardy over who will win the women’s US Open final. Either of these women have the game to take this match by the scruff of the neck and win it.
In saying that, there’s more pointing towards Sabalenka getting it done than Anisimova. The world No 1 is a fiery character, and having fallen short of major glory this season – despite being the world’s best – will be a big fire under her. This, plus the desire to avenge her Wimbledon loss to Anisimova, will be huge.
For the American, we actually think she’ll struggle mentally for different reasons this time. The occasion and opponent won’t overawe her like it did in London, but when push comes to shove – which we expect it will in this clash – we think she might find herself coming up short. What she’s done already in New York is a huge achievement. She’s already announced herself, and has already expended an enormous amount of physical and emotional energy getting past Swiatek and Osaka.
Expect Anisimova to acquit herself well, likely taking a set, but for Sabalenka to get this one over the line and bag that elusive slam.
