It’s round of 16 day at the Shanghai Masters, here’s a preview for two of tomorrow’s matches, Alex de Minaur vs. Karen Khachanov and Arthur Gea vs. Jakub Mensik, with our betting predictions and odds.
Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov
De Minaur, the 9th seed, arrived at the tournament with some fitness questions following an injury in Beijing. So far in Shanghai he has looked fine: he went through round two on a walkover against Alex Molcan, then saw off Rei Sakamoto 7-6(6), 6-4, with the opening set needing a tiebreak.
Khachanov, the 26th seed, has had some hard work to get here. He needed 3 hours and 29 minutes to edge Arthur Fery 7-6(6), 6-7(5), 7-6(2) in round two, the longest match of the day, before bouncing back with a cleaner 6-2, 6-4 win over Adrian Mannarino.
The head-to-head is level at 2-2 and De Minaur won the most recent one, 6-2, 6-2 in the Paris Masters round of 16 last year.
Predictions
De Minaur’s court coverage against Khachanov’s flat power, and the recent history says it’s closer than the rankings imply. The Aussie enters as slight odds favorite at around 1.80 (-125) to win and a deep run here would be important in the hunt for a spot at the ATP Finals.
Khachanov has shown some great form lately but I’ll still trust the better mover in a match that should go the distance.
My bet: De Minaur to win in three sets.
Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik
Arthur Gea has created a few headlines in Shanghai so far. The 21-year-old Frenchman, ranked No. 56, is playing Shanghai for the first time, and he’s been through a tough draw: 6-7(3), 6-1, 6-2 over Jaime Faria, 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 over 30th seed Ugo Humbert, and then a 7-6(5), 7-6(3) win over third seed Ben Shelton in the third round. It’s been a breakout year for him, with his first ATP title coming in Los Cabos in August.
Mensik, the 13th seed, has been steadier, beginning with a bye and then beating Miomir Kecmanovic 6-3, 6-3 and Francisco Cerundolo 6-3, 3-6, 6-2. He won the Auckland title earlier this year and is getting close to the top 10 in the ranks.
This is a first tour-level meeting between the two.
Predictions
Gea has momentum and has already knocked out a top-four player, but Mensik is an even tougher test right now and a very consistent player. The Czech is the more proven performer on this stage, and his serve should give him a slight edge on these quite fast courts.
My bet: Mensik to win in two tight sets.
