It’s title day in Washington, here’s a preview for today’s final of the Mubadala DC Open, Taylor Fritz vs. Rafael Jodar, with our predictions and best bets.
Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar
The World no 10 and third seed reaches his fourth final of the season after a tough week that included a saved match point against Michelsen in the quarters, 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(6), followed by a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win over countryman Nakashima in the semi’s. It’s been a good tournament for Fritz overall, but he’s 0-3 in finals so far in 2026, having lost in Dallas to Shelton and in Halle to Tiafoe, so there will be a bit of pressure to finally get one over the line on home soil.
On the other side of the net is the 19-year-old sensation Rafael Jodar, who continues to produce one big week after another. He came through a stacked draw beating Fils, Nishikori and no 4 seed Musetti (rallying from a set down, 1-6, 6-1, 6-4) before edging Tabilo 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-4 in the semis to reach his first ATP 500 final and just his second tour-level final overall, after winning the title in Marrakech back in April. Jodar is guaranteed to break into the top 15 regardless of the result on Monday, which tells you everything about the season he’s had since climbing out of the top 100 back in February.
This will be their second meeting and Fritz holds a 1-0 lead after beating Jodar in straight sets, 7-6(4), 6-4, in the second round of Delray Beach earlier this year. That was a very different version of Jodar though, before his breakthrough clay swing.
Predictions and best bets
Fritz has the experience and the crowd behind him, but he also carried a bit of physical concern into the final after appearing to tweak his knee against Michelsen, and he’s played six sets over the last two days. Jodar, by contrast, looks fresher mentally the deeper this tournament goes, and he’s shown he can dig himself out of trouble against much more experienced players all week long.
I think Jodar’s baseline consistency and composure under pressure give him a real shot to turn the tables on Fritz from their Delray Beach meeting, especially if he can push this into a third set. It won’t be easy against a in-form Fritz on a fast hard court, but I like the value on the underdog here and I can see Jodar winning this.
My bet: Jodar to win in three sets
(Odds around 4.00 (+300) with most books; shop around before you place it).
