Previews and Predictions – Quarterfinals 2025 Madrid Open
We’re into the quarters’ of the Madrid Masters and these our the best bets in our opinion.
Cerundolo vs. Mensik
May 1, 2025 | 15:00 CEST
Head-to-Head: 1-0
Francisco Cerundolo comes into the quarterfinals with four wins in his last five matches. The Argentine has looked sharp this week, securing two comfortable straight-set wins before beating Alexander Zverev in similar fashion in the round of 16. More on Francisco Cerundolo’s current racquet.
Jakub Mensik has also won four of his last five matches and is yet to drop a set in Madrid. The Czech has handled his opponents with ease, including a 6-3, 6-2 win over Alexander Bublik. He served well, saving all three breakpoints he faced and not allowing any on his own serve.
Recommended Bet
Bookmakers have Cerundolo as the favorite, and we agree. Mensik has had a relatively smooth path so far, while Cerundolo has faced tougher opposition and come through impressively. The Argentine is more comfortable on clay and should have the edge.
Value bet / Best odds: Francisco Cerundolo to win @ 1.67, -150 or 4/6
Draper vs. Arnaldi
May 1, 2025 | 16:30 CEST
Head-to-Head: First Meeting
Jack Draper has won three of his last five matches and is playing confidently in Madrid, where he has yet to drop a set. He delivered a strong performance in the round of 16, dismantling Tommy Paul in straight sets.
Matteo Arnaldi has won four of his last five, with a standout victory over Novak Djokovic in the second round. He followed that up with a straight-set win against Frances Tiafoe in the round of 16. The Italian is showing excellent form and is well-suited to clay.
Recommended Bet
While the odds favor Draper, we see value in backing Arnaldi to keep this close. His confidence is high following his win over Djokovic, and his clay-court skills make him a real threat in this matchup.
Value bet / Best odds: Matteo Arnaldi +3.5 games handicap @ 1.80, -125 or 4/5
Ruud vs. Medvedev
May 1, 2025 | 13:00 CEST
Head-to-Head: 0-3
Casper Ruud enters this match having won four of his last five outings. In Madrid, the Norwegian has been dominant, winning all three matches in straight sets. Most recently, he defeated Taylor Fritz 7-5, 6-4 in the round of 16, clearly controlling the match. Last year, Ruud reached the fourth round in Madrid before losing to Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets.
Daniil Medvedev has also won four of his last five matches. His campaign in Madrid started with a retirement from Laslo Djere, followed by a commanding 6-2, 6-2 win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Medvedev showed composure, facing and saving only one breakpoint. In the round of 16, he overcame Brandon Nakashima in three sets. Last season, Medvedev reached the quarterfinals, where he was defeated by Jiri Lehecka.
Recommended Bet
The odds slightly favor Ruud, and we believe that is justified. Ruud is a far more accomplished player on clay, while this will be their first meeting on this surface. We anticipate a straightforward win for Ruud.
Value bet / Best odds: Casper Ruud to win @ 1.57, -175 or 4/7
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