Jack Draper vs Joao Fonseca, Indian Wells, Preview and Predictions

Written by: Stefan Jonsson | March 7, 2025
draper

In the second round of the Indian Wells Masters event, we have an interesting matchup when British no 1 Jack Draper takes on young sensation Joao Fonseca.

Draper is the betting sites favorite for this clash, set for Saturday 8th March, can we get an upset again by Fonseca?

Jack Draper, no 13 seed here in California, has been bothered by some injury problems this season and was once again retiring from a Grand Slam match when he faced Alcaraz in the Australian Open fourth round earlier this year. When he’s been on court he looked really good though and he’s always a challenge for any player nowadays.

The number 14 ranked Brit had an impressive Doha event recently (lost in the final to Rublev) and look to go deep again at the Indian Wells, like he did back in 2023.

Read more about Draper and his current gear.

Joao Fonseca is one of the in-form, young players to mix up things on the tour and with a 7-3 record this year and his maiden ATP title in Buenos Aires last month, he should not be underestimated anymore. He’s already been in action this week in California and beat Jacob Fearnley 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 on Thursday in another impressive display, to reach this round vs Draper. Want to know what racquet Joao Fonseca is using?

joao fonseca
Fonseca

Predictions and Odds

This is the first meeting between these two players and that always make it a bit trickier. Looking at the odds we see Jack Draper as favorite at around 1.66 (-150) and a win for Fonseca gives 2.28 (+125).

The left-handed Draper is the most experienced player and this is just the second Masters 1000 event for the Brazilian.

Fonseca has shown he can play well against top players on all surfaces, and as both players are in good form and known fighters it might be a long one. Fonseca had great support in the stands in the first match against Fearnley and he’s stated he is “ready” for this meeting.

We hold Draper as the most likely winner on Saturday, but we believe we are up for a 3-set battle here.

Value bets: Draper to win in 3 sets (3.75 or +275) or Over 2.5 sets (2.25 or +125)

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Stefan Jonsson

Stefan is a writer at Tennisnerd since 2023 and keep the readers updated on new events, betting tips and general tennis news.