Only two players remain in Paris, the last Masters 1000 event of the year, let’s look at the details ahead of Carlos Alcaraz vs Ben Shelton with our betting predictions.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Ben Shelton
Alcaraz has reached his first Paris final and goes for his first title here, after never getting past the quarterfinals before. He beat Michelsen 7-6(4), 6-3 in his opener, went through the next round when Berrettini withdrew, saved two match points to beat Fritz in three sets in the quarterfinals and then beat Casper Ruud 6-4, 6-4 in the semifinals in 86 minutes without facing a break point. The World no 3 comes in on an eight-match winning streak and of course the Vienna title.
Shelton, the third seed, has also had to dig in. He beat Cameron Norrie 6-3, 6-4 in the second round, then won three straight tight matches: Arthur Rinderknech 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5), Tommy Paul 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 and Luca Van Assche 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 in the semifinals, where he trailed 3-1 in the decider before winning four games in a row. He’s now the first American to reach the final here since Jack Sock won the title in 2017. A win would give him a fifth title of the year and his third Masters 1000 title, after winning Montreal twice.
H2H
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 3-1, or 2-1 if you leave out the Laver Cup. He won in the second round in Toronto in 2023, 6-3, 7-6(3), at the Laver Cup in Berlin in 2024, 6-4, 6-4, and in the fourth round of Roland Garros in 2025, 7-6(8), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4. Shelton won the most recent match, in the US Open quarterfinals in September, 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(10-7), in an epic match that finished at 3.30 in the morning. and ended Alcaraz’s title defence. The Laver Cup was their only previous meeting indoors.
Another storyline here is of course that Alcaraz previous coach Juan Carlos Ferrero will join Ben Shelton’s coaching team soon.
Predictions and best bets
Shelton’s serve is the biggest weapon in the draw, and he’s already beaten Alcaraz once this year when it mattered, so he knows he can do it. But that match was a coin flip that came down to a final-set tiebreak, Alcaraz is the one with a title this month, he has said he wants revenge, and he’ll be fresher after a straight-sets semifinal while Shelton has been to a deciding set in three of his four matches. Alcaraz is now in better form compared to their last meeting and I’ll back him to win his first Paris title.
My bet: Alcaraz to win in three sets.
