There has been some major upsets already in Paris, will it continue? Today it’s round of 16 day and here’s a preview for two great matchups for Thursday: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Berrettini and Arthur Fils vs. Taylor Fritz, with our betting predictions.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Berrettini
Alcaraz has started well in Paris and his comeback from injury seems to be going really well! He opened here on Wednesday with a 7-6, 6-3 win over Alex Michelsen, and he arrived in the French capital after his title in Vienna last week.
Berrettini has had the busier route, but he’s been playing well. He beat Brandon Nakashima in three sets in the first round and then Ugo Humbert in straight sets in the second, and his serve has been the key to both wins. He’s coming off a quarterfinal loss to Alex de Minaur in Vienna, so he’s had a few days to rest.
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 3-1, but it’s a more competitive series than that suggests. Berrettini won the first Grand Slam meeting, a five-set thriller in the third round of the 2022 Australian Open, 6-2, 7-6(3), 4-6, 2-6, 7-6(5). Alcaraz won the others: Vienna in 2021 (indoor hard, quarterfinals), 6-1, 6-7(2), 7-6(5); Rio in 2022 (clay, quarterfinals), 6-2, 2-6, 6-2; and Wimbledon in 2023 (fourth round), 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3. They haven’t played since.
Predictions
Berrettini’s serve and forehand make him a danger to anyone on a fast court, and he’s taken at least a set off Alcaraz in all four of their matches, so a tight set wouldn’t be a surprise. But Alcaraz has the better return, the better movement and the better form, and in the last meeting he dropped the first set and then won the next three. I’ll back him to win, though I expect an in-form Berrettini to win a lot of his service games.
My bet: Alcaraz to win in two, and we’ll see one tie-break.
Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Fils has already qualified for the ATP Finals, which makes him the first Frenchman to do so since Gael Monfils in 2016. He beat Tomas Machac 6-3, 7-6 in Paris, and while he retired from his Basel quarterfinal against Fritz last week with a back problem, he has said he is fit and shows no sign of being affected.
Fritz needs to keep winning plenty of matches here in Paris to stay alive in the race for Turin. He came through his opener against Benjamin Bonzi 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 in 1 hour 41 minutes, hitting 20 aces, and then needed three sets again to beat Alex Molcan 6-7, 7-5, 7-6 after losing the first. He has served 57 aces in his two matches, but he also needed medical attention on his right arm in the last couple of days.
The two are level at 1-1. Fils won their first meeting in Tokyo in 2024, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, and Fritz won the second in the Basel quarterfinals on 30 October, leading 6-2, 2-0 when Fils retired with a lower back problem.
Predictions and best bets
The most recent meeting tells us very little, because Fils was injured for most of it and Fritz led comfortably from the start. This one is difficult to predict. Fritz has played two three-setters in a row with an arm problem, and Fils is the fresher player after a straight-sets win, but the Frenchman is coming off a back injury and Fritz’s serve is a weapon that can win him a match by itself.
Looking at the Race to Turin, Fritz should have more motivation to win this match and his serve has been great recently. Great odds on a Fritz 2-1 win today.
My bet: Fritz to win in three sets, at odds around 4.20 or +320 (US)
