It’s day 2 at the Erste Bank Open in Vienna, and the first round is giving us some top quality matchups. There are 6 players of the Top 10 here in Austria this week and it’s quite a lot at stake for some of them, with the ATP Finals coming up.
Here’s a preview for two of Tuesday’s matches, Flavio Cobolli vs. Grigor Dimitrov and Karen Khachanov vs. Carlos Alcaraz, with our predictions and best bets.
Flavio Cobolli vs Grigor Dimitrov
Cobolli arrives in Vienna as the No. 6 player in the world, a career high, and fresh off a three-set loss to Lorenzo Musetti in the Lyon semifinals on Saturday, 4-6, 6-2, 7-5, a match in which he had four (!) match points. It’s been the best season of his career, with the Acapulco title and a run to the Roland Garros final, but his indoor hard-court record this year is just 2-4, and his best result in Vienna is a second-round exit in both 2024 and 2025.
Dimitrov’s year has been a struggle. Ranked No. 124, a long way from his career-high No. 3, he’s 13-19 in 2026, and he lost in the first round of the St. Tropez Challenger a month ago. Vienna is one of his better tournaments, with a semifinal in 2022, and he can still produce tennis well above his ranking, but the signs this season haven’t been encouraging.
This is a first meeting between the two.
Predictions
Cobolli is the heavy favorite on paper, and there’s no good reason to doubt that. He enters as favorite at odds around 1.50 or -200.
The Italian hasn’t been great on indoor courts lately but he showed glimpses of good form in Lyon in the tough loss to Musetti. Dimitrov’s level has been inconsistent enough that I don’t see him taking advantage unless Cobolli is very flat. I don’t think we’ll get an upset here.
My bet: Cobolli to win in straight sets
Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz, the world No. 3, is playing Vienna for the first time since 2021, and it’s the start of his European indoor swing. He retained the Japan Open title, his first trophy since returning from a nearly five-month wrist injury layoff, beating Jiri Lehecka 7-6(4), 6-4 in the final for his third title of 2026, after the Australian Open and Doha. But he was knocked out by Zizou Bergs in the third round of Shanghai, so he isn’t unbeatable at the moment.
Khachanov is a seven-time tour champion and a US Open semifinalist this season, and he’s the kind of first-round opponent Alcaraz will be wary of. He lost the Almaty quarterfinal to Alexander Bublik last week, 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(5), after saving five match points to beat Tomas Machac in the previous round.
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6-0, though Khachanov has taken only two sets in all six meetings and came closest in Doha in February, when he won a first-set tiebreak before Alcaraz took the match 6-7, 6-4, 6-3. Alcaraz also won in Rome in 2025, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, and in Beijing in 2024, 7-5, 6-2.
Predictions and best bets
The head-to-head says Alcaraz, and I’m not going to argue with a 6-0 record. But the last two meetings, Doha and Rome, both went three sets, Khachanov’s serve is a weapon indoors and he has looked really dangerous at times this season. It’s Alcaraz’s first match of the European indoor swing, in a tournament he hasn’t played for 5 years, and we’ve seen him rusty in the beginning of tournaments before. I think Khachanov takes a set, but Alcaraz will find a way as he usually does.
My bet: Alcaraz to win in three sets, at odds 3.60 or +260.
