Well, this is going to be fun. Ben Shelton, the 23-year-old with a 150-mph serve and that natural, fearless rizz, has smashed his way to his first Grand Slam final. His opponent? Alexander Zverev, the world No 2 and top seed, who’s chasing his second major title of 2026 and holds a 5-0 head-to-head lead over the American.
We’re talking pedigree against momentum, experience against energy, and the whole of New York backing one side of the net. Read on for my preview of the men’s US Open final, as I look at the head-to-head, odds and form, before giving my tactical breakdown, prediction and best bets.
Tale of the tape – Zverev v Shelton
Alexander Zverev US Open record
Overall: 34-10
Best previous result: Finalist (2020)
Path to the 2026 US Open final:
- R1 – Lorenzo Sonego (6-4, 3-6, 6-7(7), 7-5, 6-4)
- R2 – Quentin Halys (6-4, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-7(3), 6-3)
- R3 – [25] Alejandro Tabilo (6-2, 7-6(2), 6-2)
- R4 – [21] Luciano Darderi (6-2, 6-2, 7-6(3))
- QF – Botic van de Zandschulp (6-2, 7-5, 6-1)
- SF – Karen Khachanov (6-3, 7-6(7), 7-6(6))
It’s felt like two tournaments in one, this Zverev run. He nearly went home in the first week, needing five sets in both the first and second rounds, spending over nine hours on court in his opening two matches alone. The 29-year-old was visibly frustrated, even calling his own performance “quite shit” after the Halys match. Fair enough – it wasn’t pretty.
But from the third round onwards, something clicked. He steamrolled Tabilo, Darderi and van de Zandschulp without dropping a set, then saw off Khachanov in the semis in straights as well. Three tight sets, all controlled. That’s the Zverev that wins Grand Slams.
This is his third consecutive Grand Slam final after winning Roland-Garros and finishing runner-up at Wimbledon earlier this year. He’s also the only man to make the semis at all four majors in 2026. His US Open record is strong too – he made the final here in 2020, losing a brutal five-setter to Dominic Thiem after leading two sets to love. That one still stings, but it’d feel a whole lot better if he got the trophy this Sunday.
Ben Shelton US Open record
Overall: 15-4
Best previous result: Semifinal (2023)
Path to the 2026 US Open final:
- R1 – Tallon Griekspoor (1-6, 6-1, 7-6(3), 6-2)
- R2 – Hubert Hurkacz (6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 7-5)
- R3 – Denis Shapovalov (7-6(3), 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-4)
- R4 – [26] Stefanos Tsitsipas (6-2, 6-3, 6-4)
- QF – [2] Carlos Alcaraz (6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(10-7))
- SF – [11] Frances Tiafoe (4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5)
What a fortnight. Shelton has gone from title outsider to the man carrying the hopes of American tennis, and he’s done it the hard way. Lost the first set against Griekspoor. Went four against Hurkacz and Shapovalov. Demolished Tsitsipas. Then pulled off the upset of the tournament against defending champion Alcaraz in a five-set epic that finished at 3:33 a.m. – the latest conclusion in US Open history. Clinched it with a monster ace out wide. Of course he did.
This is Shelton’s best season by a distance. Four titles in 2026 – Dallas, Munich, Stuttgart and Montreal – and a 39-13 record. His win over Alcaraz was his first against a top-three player, and he’s looked a different player since. Against Tiafoe in the semifinal, he dropped the opening set but responded with three straight. I was seriously impressed by how locked in he looked – Shelton’s got the look of a guy who is here for silverware.
Zverev v Shelton head-to-head
Overall: 5-0 to Zverev
All five meetings:
- 2024 Cincinnati QF – Zverev (3-6, 7-6, 7-5)
- 2025 Munich Final – Zverev (6-2, 6-4)
- 2025 Stuttgart SF – Zverev (7-6, 7-6)
- 2025 Cincinnati QF – Zverev (6-2, 6-2)
- 2025 ATP Finals SF – Zverev (6-3, 7-6(6))
This head-to-head is ugly reading for Shelton fans. Zverev has won all five of their meetings, taking 10 of the 11 sets they’ve played. The one set Shelton managed was the opener in their first encounter in Cincinnati, and he hasn’t taken one since. He got thumped 6-2, 6-2 in Cincinnati last year and didn’t fare much better at the ATP Finals. Yikes.
Now, none of these meetings were at a Grand Slam, and none were on this stage, in front of this crowd. Shelton is a much better player than he was in those losses. But the numbers are the numbers, and 5-0 with 10 of 11 sets is hard to argue with.
Men’s US Open final odds
- Alexander Zverev – 1.72 (-137)
- Ben Shelton – 2.33 (+133)
Bookmakers have Zverev as a solid favorite at 1.72 (-137) to Shelton’s 2.33 (+133), giving the German around a 58% implied probability. That reflects the head-to-head dominance and Zverev’s greater Grand Slam pedigree, though Shelton’s price has shortened considerably since the Alcaraz upset – he was +1050 before the tournament.
In set betting, Zverev winning in straight sets pays around 3.50 (+250), while Shelton winning 3-0 is a longer 5.00 (+400). The match going four or five sets is priced shortest, reflecting the expectation that Shelton’s firepower will grab at least a set. The total games line sits around 38.5, paying approximately 1.90 (-110) either way.
Zverev v Shelton expert analysis
The case for Zverev
5-0, 10 of 11 sets. There’s no dressing that up. Zverev has had Shelton’s number in every previous meeting, and the tactical reasons are clear. That backhand – flat, heavy, well-directed – neutralizes Shelton’s forehand, which is his primary weapon. And in their most recent meeting at the ATP Finals, Zverev won 16 of 21 points on Shelton’s second serve. That’s a crazy number.
He’s the more experienced big-match player by a mile, too. This is his sixth Grand Slam final. Yes, he’s only won one of the previous five, but that one – Roland-Garros earlier this year – was a statement. He backed it up with a Wimbledon final immediately afterward, losing to Sinner. Three consecutive Grand Slam finals. He’s peaking at exactly the right time.
His serve has been exceptional from the quarters onward as well. His first-serve percentage and hold rate have been outstanding since the draw opened up. If he gets above 65% on first serves, Shelton’s return game – not his strongest suit – is going to struggle.
The case for Shelton
Head-to-heads don’t always carry over to the next match, especially when the player on the wrong end of them is improving fast. Shelton went into the Alcaraz quarterfinal 0-2 against the Spaniard and played the match of his life. If he can do that against the defending champion at 3 a.m. in a fifth-set tiebreak, he can beat anyone.
The crowd is going to be enormous. Arthur Ashe will be a cauldron on Sunday, with every neutral pulling for the home favorite. Shelton feeds off that energy better than almost anyone in tennis. His serve gets bigger, he gets bouncier, and his confidence visibly grows. Against Alcaraz, the crowd carried him through adversity. Expect the same on Sunday.
Tactically, it’s all about his serve and improved movement. He needs cheap holds to keep the pressure off, and he needs to be more aggressive on return than he’s been in previous meetings with Zverev. That 10-of-54 return stat from Turin is alarming, but it came at the end of a long season against a fresher Zverev. We’ve got different conditions here: outdoor hardcourt, bigger crowd, and a Shelton who’s battle-tested and playing with house money.
Our 2026 Men’s US Open final prediction & betting tips
- Zverev to win @ 1.72 (-137)
- Over 38.5 games @ 1.90 (-110)
- Shelton to win at least one set @ 1.40 (-250)
I’ll be honest – part of me wants to tip Shelton. The storyline is too good, and he’s playing with a fearlessness that makes him dangerous. But when I put all that aside and look at the cold, hard facts, I can’t go past Zverev.
The head-to-head is too one-sided to ignore. It’s not just the 5-0 record – it’s how he’s won them. Zverev has figured out Shelton’s patterns, particularly on the second serve, and has shown he can neutralize the big forehand with his backhand. Shelton has improved since those losses, no question. But the way this matchup plays out hasn’t changed. Zverev’s game is built to handle big hitters.
Physical state is a factor too. Shelton played a five-set quarterfinal that ended at 3:33 a.m. on Wednesday, then a four-set semifinal two days later. That’s a lot of tennis. Zverev, by contrast, dispatched Khachanov in straight sets and has had the cleaner run through the second week. Fresh legs are key in a Grand Slam final.
I’m predicting Zverev in four.
He’ll lean on his serve and his backhand, keeping Shelton pinned to his weaker side. But Shelton will grab a set – probably by riding his serve and the crowd through a tiebreak. Backing the total games over 38.5 feels safe given the serving power on both sides. I’d also have a punt on Shelton to win at least one set at 1.40 (-250) – his serve is too big and his confidence too high for Zverev to roll him in straights.
My prediction: Zverev in four, somewhere around 7-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. Zverev’s experience and matchup edge will be the difference, but Shelton will give the New York crowd plenty to cheer about before the trophy goes to Europe.
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