We had success with our picks for the first day and now on day 2 it’s the defending champion’s turn to open his campaign in a tough opener after his long break. Below is a preview for two of today’s first-round matches, Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin and Learner Tien vs. Nuno Borges, with our predictions and best bets.
Tennisnerd will be present at the first match, so keep a look out on our Instagram for some updates :)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin
Alcaraz hasn’t played a competitive singles match since Barcelona back in April, with a right wrist injury wiping out his entire clay and grass season. He did get some match play in via mixed doubles with Serena Williams last week, but this is the real return and it’s against a dangerous opponent.
Safiullin is no soft touch for an opener. Ranked 99th at the moment but capable of far better, you may remember he reached the fourth round at Wimbledon this year as a qualifier, beating Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca along the way before falling to Djokovic. He also has previous success against Alcaraz, having beaten him in straight sets at the 2023 Paris Masters.
Their last meeting was an Alcaraz win though, 6-4, 6-2 back at the Olympics two years ago.
Predictions and best bets
Match fitness is the obvious question mark for Alcaraz, and Safiullin’s return game and willingness to take the ball early might expose a player still finding his timing. Still, the best-of-five format works in the defending champion’s favor, and I think he will find a way to progress from this opener.
My bet: Alcaraz to win in four sets, at odds 3.15 or +215
Learner Tien vs Nuno Borges
Tien enters in good form after a strong North American hard-court swing that included a run to the Montreal semifinals, and the young American now ranked 15th in the world. He’s yet to win a main-draw match at the US Open though.
Borges, that enters in fine form, gets the tough draw here. The Portuguese reached the 4th round in both Montreal and Cincinnati. Tien has beaten him twice before though, including at the Australian Open earlier this year, without dropping a set either time.
Predictions
Tien’s game and his recent hard-court form both point strongly in his favor, and the perfect head-to-head against Borges only adds to the case. I don’t see a lot of reasons to doubt him here. It’s just a bad matchup for Borges game.
My bet: Tien to win in straight sets.
