The 2026 US Open draw is out, and as always, it’s given us some fascinating storylines. With Jannik Sinner pulling out due to a knee injury and Carlos Alcaraz returning from four months on the sidelines with a wrist problem, this is the most open men’s draw in New York in years. The women’s side is just as intriguing, with Aryna Sabalenka gunning for a three-peat but facing a raft of challengers in every corner as well as her own form concerns.
I’ve gone through both draws with a fine-tooth comb, pulling out the key talking points and identifying betting opportunities. Below you’ll find my breakdown of the men’s and women’s draws, predictions and best bets ahead of main draw action getting underway on August 30th.
2026 men’s US Open draw
- Alcaraz and Djokovic land on the same side – the defending champion and the 24-time major winner are on a collision course for the semi-finals, just as they were last year
- Sinner’s absence reshapes the draw – with the world No 1 out, Zverev inherits the top seed and a considerably easier path to the final
- Alcaraz faces a brutal return – Safiullin in round one is no gimme, and both recent Masters 1000 champions Shelton and Fils lurk in his quarter
- Djokovic’s fitness is the big question – the Serb wilted in Cincinnati due to heat-related health issues and cut a practice short in New York this week
- Wawrinka and Monfils get their swan songs – both veterans are playing their final Grand Slam, with Wawrinka potentially facing Djokovic in round two
Alexander Zverev is the top seed and has been handed the kinder half of the draw. The German, who won his maiden Grand Slam at Roland-Garros this year and made the Wimbledon final, is 18-2 at major level in 2026. He opens against Lorenzo Sonego and is projected to face sixth seed Alex de Minaur in the quarter-finals, with the fast-rising Rafael Jodar and 2022 finalist Casper Ruud also potential opponents in the quarters. It’s a navigable path for a player of Zverev’s calibre.
Third seed Felix Auger-Aliassime is in Zverev’s half and would be the projected semi-final opponent. FAA reached the semis here last year and his quarter features fifth seed Flavio Cobolli, home favorite Taylor Fritz (who opens against 18-year-old compatriot Darwin Blanch), 14th seed Learner Tien and a retiring Gael Monfils. Fritz and Cobolli are seeded to meet in the fourth round, which could be an excellent match.
The bottom half is where it gets spicy. Alcaraz hasn’t played a competitive singles match since the Barcelona Open in mid-April. He’s back from a right wrist injury and faces Roman Safiullin first up – a player who beat him in straight sets at the 2023 Paris Masters. That’s a tricky opener for anyone, let alone someone returning from a four-month layoff.
Should Alcaraz navigate his early rounds, he’s got Montreal champion Ben Shelton and Cincinnati winner Arthur Fils both seeded in his quarter. Fils takes on two-time major finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in a blockbuster first-round match, while Shelton opens against Tallon Griekspoor. 15th seed Alexander Bublik is Alcaraz’s projected fourth-round opponent.
Djokovic, seeded fourth, opens against Mariano Navone and could face the Stan Wawrinka-Matteo Berrettini winner in round two – a nostalgic match-up that carries a tinge of danger too. Seventh seed Daniil Medvedev is his projected quarter-final opponent. Former US Open champion Marin Cilic opens against 23rd seed Andrey Rublev in another eye-catching first-round clash in this section.
Men’s US Open predictions
I’m tipping Zverev to win the 2026 US Open. The draw has fallen kindly for the top seed, and he’s the most match-fit elite player in the field right now. His projected path through to the final is Sonego, Quentin Halys, Alejandro Tabilo, Lorenzo Musetti, De Minaur, FAA – and while Musetti and De Minaur can be tricky, none of them should be beating a fully firing Zverev in a best-of-five format. He’s 18-2 at Slam level this year for a reason.
Alcaraz is the better player on talent, but four months without competitive singles is a long time. His draw is no gift either. Safiullin in round one has beaten him before. Bublik in the projected fourth round has a wicked serve that can hurt anyone. And Shelton, his projected QF opponent, just defended his Montreal title and arrives brimming with confidence. Even if Alcaraz gets through all of that, he’d likely face Djokovic in the semis. I expect him to go deep, but doubt he’ll be adding to his slam tally.
Djokovic is my wildcard. His health scare in Cincinnati is concerning – collapsing due to heat-related issues at 39 is not something you can brush aside. He also cut a practice session short in New York this week, which doesn’t inspire confidence. That said, his early draw is manageable. Navone is beatable, the Berrettini-Wawrinka winner is a sentimental match-up but shouldn’t trouble him, and Tomas Etcheverry in the third round doesn’t have the weapons to cause real problems. Medvedev in the quarters is the first serious test. If Djokovic is fit enough to get there, he’s more than capable of beating the Russian – he’s done it countless times.
Fils is my dark horse. The Frenchman arrives off the back of winning Cincinnati – his biggest career title – and has the game to beat anyone on a quick hardcourt. His first-round match against Tsitsipas is a solid test, but Fils has been the better player for months now and should have too much firepower. From there, Lehecka or Machac is a navigable third round, and a projected fourth-round clash with Shelton would be fascinating. Two huge servers going at it – that match could go either way.
My predicted semi-finals are Zverev vs FAA and Alcaraz vs Djokovic, with Zverev beating Djokovic in the final.
There's some serious history in the bottom half of the men's singles draw ? pic.twitter.com/Zf0fDJaubO
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 27, 2026
Best bets on men’s US Open 2026
- Zverev to win the US Open @ 5.00 (+400)
- Fils to reach the semi-finals @ 11.00 (+1000)
- Djokovic to reach the quarter-finals @ 2.25 (+125)
Zverev is my headline bet. At 5.00 (+400) he offers real value for the most in-form major performer in the draw. His half is significantly easier than Alcaraz’s, and with the Spaniard’s fitness a legitimate concern, Zverev doesn’t need to beat him until the final at the earliest. He made the final here in 2020 and the semis in 2021, and his game has never been better than it is right now. The serve is a weapon that thrives in New York’s conditions, and his baseline defence has improved to the point where he can hang with anyone in extended rallies.
If Alcaraz isn’t 100%, Zverev wins this title.
Fils at 11.00 (+1000) to reach the last four is my value play. The 22-year-old just won Cincinnati, beating quality opposition to do so, and his big-hitting game translates perfectly to the US Open’s quick surface. He’s in Alcaraz’s quarter but on the opposite side of it. His projected path through to the quarters runs through Tsitsipas in round one, then Lehecka or Machac in round three, then Shelton in the fourth round. That’s tough, but Fils has the weapons to get through it. And if he does, he’d face a potentially undercooked Alcaraz for a spot in the semis. At this price, the risk-reward is excellent.
Djokovic to reach the quarter-finals at 2.25 (+125) is my safe play. His early-round path is kind – Navone, the Wawrinka-Berrettini winner, Etcheverry, then Brandon Nakashima or Rublev – and none of those opponents should trouble him if he’s anywhere near his best. The Rublev match in a potential fourth round is the one to watch, as the Russian has been in decent form this summer, but Djokovic holds a massive head-to-head advantage. The fitness is the concern, but Djokovic has shown time and again that he can manage his body through the first week of a Slam. I expect him to be there on the second Monday.
2026 women’s US Open draw
- Sabalenka chases a three-peat – the world No 1 is aiming to become the first woman since Williams (2012–14) to win three consecutive US Open titles
- Rybakina’s fitness is in doubt – the second seed suffered an Achilles injury during her Cincinnati quarter-final and is yet to practice in New York
- Gauff arrives in hot form – the 2023 champion just won Cincinnati and looks every bit a title contender
- Swiatek draws the toughest quarter – seeded eighth, the former world No 1 is on a collision course with Rybakina in the last eight, alongside Osaka, Keys and Bencic
- Four players can leave New York as world No 1 – Sabalenka, Rybakina, Pegula and Gauff all have a shot at the top ranking
Sabalenka has the smoother top half. The two-time defending champion opens against Colombia’s Camila Osorio and is projected to face Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in the quarter-finals – a legitimate threat, but one Sabalenka should have the edge over. Her projected semi-final is against third seed Jessica Pegula, who could face seventh seed Karolina Muchova or ninth seed Elina Svitolina in the quarters.
The bottom half is a gauntlet. Fourth seed Coco Gauff is projected to face fifth seed Mirra Andreeva in the quarter-finals, with 10th seed Amanda Anisimova also in that section. Gauff arrives in superb form off the back of her Cincinnati title, where she beat Pegula in the final.
The final quarter is loaded. Eighth seed Iga Swiatek, who won the Canadian Open earlier this month, is in with second seed Elena Rybakina, 13th seed Naomi Osaka, 22nd seed Madison Keys and 12th seed Belinda Bencic. Swiatek and Rybakina have already met twice this summer. If Rybakina is fit, this quarter could produce the eventual champion.
My wild card is Rybakina’s health. The second seed suffered an Achilles issue in Cincinnati and hasn’t been seen on the practice courts. If she withdraws or plays at less than 100%, it opens up that quarter significantly – and suddenly Swiatek, Osaka or Keys could make a deep run.
Women’s US Open predictions
Sabalenka is the rightful favorite, but I’m not as high on her as the market suggests.
She hasn’t been at her absolute best since the Sunshine Double back in March and April, and she didn’t make it past the quarter-finals at either the French Open or Wimbledon this year. The talent is undeniable, but the consistency hasn’t been there. Her projected path is fine on paper – Osorio, then likely Barbora Krejcikova in the third round, Diana Shnaider or Maja Chwalinska in the fourth, Noskova in the quarters and Pegula in the semis. But Noskova just won Wimbledon and Pegula is in excellent form. This isn’t a walk to the final.
I’m tipping Coco Gauff to win the tournament.
The American has the form – she just won Cincinnati – the experience of winning this title in 2023, and the crowd behind her. Her quarter against Andreeva is tough, but Gauff has the weapons and the mental fortitude to handle it. She’s improved significantly under her current coaching setup, and her ability to grind out tight matches has been on full display during the North American swing. A potential semi-final against Rybakina or Swiatek is a challenge, but one Gauff has shown she can handle – and if Rybakina’s fitness is an issue, that side of the draw opens up considerably.
A potential final against Sabalenka would be fascinating, and it’s a match-up I think Gauff can win in the current form of both players. Sabalenka has had the edge in their recent finals, but Gauff won their only US Open meeting in 2023 and knows how to use this crowd.
If Rybakina is fit, she’s the biggest threat to everyone. The No 1 ranking is on the line for her – she takes it with a semi-final berth regardless of other results. That’s a powerful motivator. Her opening match against wildcard Thea Frodin should be comfortable, and the early rounds are navigable. The projected quarter-final against Swiatek is the key match – they’ve split their two meetings this summer, so it’s a coin toss. But the Achilles issue makes everything uncertain, and I’m not comfortable backing her at her current price until we see her on the practice court.
Best bets on women’s US Open 2026
- Gauff to win the US Open @ 5.00 (+400)
- Swiatek to reach the semi-finals @ 5.50 (+450)
- Sabalenka vs Gauff to be the women’s final @ 4.50 (+350)
Gauff at 5.00 (+400) is the bet I’m most confident in across both draws. She’s got the form, the pedigree, the crowd, and a draw that’s tough but navigable.
Andreeva is her main obstacle before the semis, and Gauff has beaten the Russian teenager twice in their last three meetings. Anisimova is also in Andreeva’s section, not Gauff’s, meaning the American’s path to the QF is actually cleaner than it looks at first glance. Her projected early rounds run through Sara Bejlek in the third round, then Iva Jovic – tough but winnable. At these odds, you’re getting excellent value on a former champion playing the best tennis of her season at the right time.
Swiatek at 5.50 (+450) to make the semis is my value play on the women’s side.
The former world No 1 won the Canadian Open this month and is building momentum under new coach Francisco Roig. Yes, her quarter is loaded – Rybakina is the projected QF opponent, and Keys, Bencic and Osaka are all floating around – but if the Kazakh’s Achilles is compromised, that path opens right up. Swiatek’s projected early rounds give her Marie Bouzkova in the third round and Keys or Bencic in the fourth, which are manageable for a six-time Grand Slam champion. She won this title in 2022 and knows what it takes to peak in New York. At these odds, the risk-reward makes sense.
A Sabalenka vs Gauff final feels like where this tournament is heading. Sabalenka beat Gauff in the Miami Open final earlier this year, and the pair have a long history in big matches – including the 2023 US Open final, which Gauff won. They’re in opposite halves of the draw, meaning they can’t meet until the title match. And with seven different women’s Grand Slam champions since the start of 2025, this event is wide open enough for both to get through. At 4.50 (+350), it’s a bet I’m happy to have a stake on.
