We’re into the fourth round at the National Bank Open in Montreal, and there are plenty of great matches today. Below is a quick preview for Ben Shelton vs. Joao Fonseca and Jakub Mensik vs. Botic van de Zandschulp, with our betting predictions.
Ben Shelton vs Joao Fonseca
Ben Shelton, the defending champion here and the 5th seed, has had a strong season with three titles already (Dallas, Munich and Stuttgart), though he’s been a bit quieter than expected at the Masters 1000 and Slam level. He cruised through the third round in Montreal, beating Zizou Bergs 6-3, 6-2.
Fonseca has kept up his recent good form, also here in Canada. The 19-year-old Brazilian took some time off after a quiet stretch following his Roland Garros quarterfinal, and it’s clearly done him good, he’s beaten Stefanos Tsitsipas and then world No. 9 Casper Ruud 7-6(6), 6-3 to reach the fourth round and he looks solid.
H2H: Shelton holds a 1-0 head-to-head edge over Fonseca from their only previous meeting on clay in Munich earlier this season.
Predictions and best bets
Shelton has more experience and of course, won this tournament last year (in Toronto), but he’s also shown dips from time to time. Fonseca’s level this week has been a cut above what he’s shown for most of the season, and there’s a case that whoever wins this match goes in as the favorite for the title.
The American enters as a slight favorite at bookmakers but this might be really tight and a Fonseca win would not be a huge upset.
My bet: Fonseca Game Handicap (+1.5) at odds 1.76 or -137.5.
Jakub Mensik vs Botic van de Zandschulp
Mensik, the 13th seed and last year’s Miami Masters champion, has quietly worked his way through the draw, most recently beating Terence Atmane 7-5, 6-4 in round three. He’s up to 27-13 for the season with a title already in Auckland.
Van de Zandschulp has been the bigger story on this side of the draw, producing two of the best results of his week by upsetting Daniil Medvedev and then coming back from a set down to beat Hubert Hurkacz 3-6, 7-6(4), 7-5. His flat, early-hitting game has clearly been working on these courts, and a win here would be a new career-best result for the Dutchman.
These two have never met before on tour.
Predictions and best bets
Mensik has the bigger weapons and a higher ceiling on a fast hard court, but he hasn’t looked totally dominant this week, and van de Zandschulp is playing with real belief right now. The Dutch world no 70 seem to find really high levels in certain moments, and has survived good opponents so far but I think Mensik is a better player overall and he will be up for the task.
My bet: Mensik to win in two tight sets.
