Only four players left in New York and we’ve got a big match coming up on the Arthur Ashe Stadium in Friday as No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz faces off against seven-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic.
This marks the ninth chapter in their rivalry, with Djokovic leading the head-to-head 5-3, including victories in their last two meetings at the 2024 Paris Olympics gold-medal match and the Australian Open quarterfinals back in January. However, this will be their first-ever clash at the US Open, completing their Grand Slam matchup set.
Alcaraz’s Path and Form
Carlos Alcaraz has been a dominant force at Flushing Meadows, getting through the draw without dropping a single set. His straight-set victories over Opelka, Bellucci, Darderi, Rinderknech and most recently Jiri Lehecka (6-4, 6-2, 6-4 in the quarterfinals) showed just how great his form is. The Spaniard is currently on an eight-match winning streak, including a title in Cincinnati, and has a 44-2 record in his last 46 matches since the clay-court season began.
The 22-year-old’s forehand and serve have been as good as we can expect lately, with only one service break conceded this tournament. Alcaraz is motivated by the chance to reclaim the world No. 1 ranking with a title here and seeks revenge against Djokovic after the two recent losses. “We all know Novak’s game,” Alcaraz said. “I really want to revenge, that’s obvious.”
Djokovic aiming for no 25
At 38, Novak Djokovic continues to defy age, reaching his record-tying 14th US Open semifinal with an impressive 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 win over No. 4 seed Taylor Fritz. Despite not playing since Wimbledon, Djokovic has battled through a tougher path, dropping sets in three of his five matches, including against Learner Tien, Zachary Svajda and Cameron Norrie.
Djokovic, chasing a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title, holds a psychological edge with his 5-3 head-to-head lead over Alcaraz, particularly on hard courts, where he’s won all three prior encounters. However, he’s spent over three more hours on court than Alcaraz and all wins here in New York has not been all straight forward.
Predictions and Betting Odds
I would say the pressure is on Alcaraz as the favorite here (as seen in the tennis odds), and he lost the previous two matches against today’s opponent, but it’s not like he haven’t dealt with that before. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him struggle in some parts of the game, but over 5 sets, Alcaraz is the far better player right now, also with a significant physical advantage.
My prediction: Alcaraz in four sets.
Best bets on Djokovic vs Alcaraz:
- Total Games Under 38.5 @ 1.75 or -137.5
- Correct Score 3:1 Alcaraz @ 3.40 or +240
