ATP Rome Masters 2025 – Betting preview and odds

Written by: David Barisic | May 6, 2025
alcaraz

The 2025 ATP Masters 1000 in Rome, officially titled the Internazionali BNL dโ€™Italia, is set to take place from May 7 to May 18 at the iconic Foro Italico in Rome, Italy. This event is one of the key tournaments in the build-up to the French Open and offers not only a rich tradition but also a vital opportunity for players to fine-tune their clay-court form.

Held at the Foro Italico since 1935, the venue has seen significant upgrades ahead of this yearโ€™s event. In 2025, organizers unveiled three new courts, increasing the total to 20, as part of a broader modernization project. Among these improvements is the newly constructed SuperTennis Arena, which boasts a seating capacity of 6,500 and now ranks as the second-largest court at the venue, only behind the Central Court. These enhancements aim to elevate both player performance and fan experience.

Played on outdoor clay, the Rome Masters traditionally favors players with strong movement, stamina and patience. Clay-court expertise is essential, and matches often hinge on consistency and the ability to handle extended rallies.

The tournament offers a total financial commitment of โ‚ฌ9,645,265. The singles champion will walk away with โ‚ฌ985,030 and 1,000 ATP ranking points, making it one of the most lucrative and impactful tournaments on the ATP Tour calendar.

As the Italian Open draw is done, let’s see some good odds and some of the best bets to make on the Rome Masters, in our opinion.

Best Bet: Carlos Alcaraz to Win the Title

Carlos Alcaraz enters the Rome Masters as a top contender, second only to home favorite Jannik Sinner in the betting markets. Alcaraz has recovered from a recent adductor injury and is expected to be fully fit heading into the tournament. His explosive style, mental toughness, and hunger for success position him as a serious threat for the title.

Although Alcaraz has limited experience in Rome, having only played once before in 2023 where he exited in the third round against Hungarian underdog Fabian Marozsan, his form in 2025 has been promising. With ample rest and a hunger to add another Masters 1000 title to his resume, the Spaniard appears ready to make a deep run.

Alcaraz has been drawn in the bottom half, strategically placing him away from Sinner until a potential meeting in the final. His projected path includes matches against Michael Mmoh, Grigor Dimitrov, Jack Draper and Alexander Zverev. Among these, Zverev poses the greatest threat given his own strong clay credentials and recent performances.

With his physical condition back to optimal levels and a relatively favorable draw, Alcaraz is well-equipped to navigate his way to the title. His explosive forehand, quick court coverage, and improved shot selection make him a top pick. Read more about Alcaraz racquet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz to win the Rome title @ 3.60, +260 or 13/5

This line offers good value given his current form, fitness, and motivation. Considering the potential obstacles in his draw, the odds are generous for a player of his caliber.

Second Best Bet: Jannik Sinner to Reach the Final

Jannik Sinner arrives in Rome under unique circumstances. He is making his return to competitive tennis after serving a three-month suspension related to anti-doping procedures. While the ban paused his season, Sinner has remained active in training and focused on his physical and mental health.

Speaking ahead of the tournament, Sinner acknowledged the unusual nature of his return, stating that expectations for this event are low as he looks to gauge where his level truly stands. He admitted that he will have a clearer picture after his first match, but added that he is physically ready and eager to perform on home soil.

Despite the uncertainty around his match fitness, Sinner has a favorable draw. He will face either Mariano Navone or Federico Cinร  in the second round. A potential quarterfinal matchup with Casper Ruud looms, but Ruud may arrive in Rome fatigued following a grueling title run in Madrid. Sinner’s path could also include opponents such as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Frances Tiafoe, Francisco Cerรบndolo, Alex de Miรฑaur, or Taylor Fritz. All are strong players, but none have shown the consistency Sinner exhibited in his dominant 2024 season.

As the current World No. 1 and with the support of a passionate Italian crowd behind him, Sinner will be highly motivated. If he finds his rhythm early in the tournament, a finals appearance is well within reach.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner to reach the final @ 2.20, +120 or 6/5

Given his favorable draw and overall quality, this presents solid value even with the slight risk associated with his recent inactivity.

sinner french open
Sinner, 2.20 odds to reach the Rome final

Extra Bet: Tallon Griekspoor vs. Miomir Kecmanovic

A closely contested match between Tallon Griekspoor and Miomir Kecmanovic is also on the schedule, though the exact timing has yet to be confirmed. Their head-to-head record stands at 3-1 in favor of Griekspoor, giving him a psychological edge heading into the encounter.

Griekspoor has shown reasonable form recently, winning three of his last five matches. In Madrid, he lost to Jack Draper in the second round, and last year in Rome, he was eliminated by Passaro in the same round. He has yet to advance past the second round at this event.

On the other hand, Kecmanovic has also won three of his last five matches. He recently reached the semifinals at a Challenger-level tournament in Estoril but lost to Michelsen in straight sets. In Rome last season, he achieved his best result by reaching the third round.

While both players have been somewhat inconsistent, Griekspoor is generally regarded as the more capable clay-court player. His 3-1 head-to-head advantage also suggests he has the tools to overcome Kecmanovic once again.

Suggested Bet: Tallon Griekspoor to win @1.62, -162.5 or 8/13

The Dutchmanโ€™s previous success against Kecmanovic and his marginally better clay performance make this a sensible value bet.

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David Barisic