The third and final Masters on clay is upon us, and as always, it’s the 2025 Italian Open. The big news heading into this one is Jannik Sinner returning from his suspension, with the world number one playing for the first time since the Australian Open.
It’s also a joint event, which means that there will be both ATP and WTA matches taking place. Read on for a breakdown of both draws, with a quarter-by-quarter analysis of seeds, matches to watch, and potential upsets.
ATP Italian Open draw
A total of 96 men will fight it out over the new 12-day format at the Italian Open. Action lasts seven rounds, with the top 32 seeds getting byes straight into the second round. Here’s how we expect it will unfold. Check also our page for betting on the Italian Open.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Jannik Sinner (1)
- Casper Ruud (6)
- Ben Shelton (12)
- Frances Tiafoe (15)
- Francisco Cerundolo (17)
- Sebastian Korda (22)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (25)
- Matteo Berrettini (29)
Matches to watch
- Federico Cina vs Mariano Navone (first round)
- Jacob Fearnley vs Fabio Fognini (first round)
This quarter might not look eye-popping at first glance because the list of players is decent, albeit not spectacular, but there is a lot of potential here. First of all, this is the quarter everyone will be closely monitoring due to Sinner returning.
Everybody wants to know how Sinner will do here (more on Sinner’s current racquet). There is a potential second-round match-up with a rising star, Federico Cina, which could make this even more interesting. Recent Madrid Open champion Casper Ruud is also in this quarter, which could be a match-up down the line.
Matteo Berrettini is here too, which the crowd will love. He’s missed a couple of these in the past few years, and he’s from Rome, so this is his event. Other than that, we have some players like Frances Tiafoe and Francisco Cerundolo, who are always good for a show, as well as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who is a wild card.
Our prediction: Sinner beats Ruud
Quarter two
Seeds
- Taylor Fritz (4)
- Alex de Minaur (7)
- Tommy Paul (11)
- Andrey Rublev (16)
- Tomas Machac (19)
- Jakub Mensik (20)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (26)
- Hubert Hurkacz (30)
Matches to watch
- Flavio Cobolli vs Luca Nardi (first round)
- Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca (second round)
This quarter is an odd one because there are players who could do a lot of damage here, but it depends on a few factors. Taylor Fritz can do well on clay, but it depends if he gets everything working for him. The same can be said for Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac.
Jakub Mensik might struggle a bit more in these sluggish, proper clay circumstances. Same with Félix Auger-Aliassime, who has a track record of being in poor form before suddenly winning a tournament. Hubert Hurkacz is not a clay superstar and likely won’t turn into one.
Andrey Rublev has some making up to do, and it’s expected he will show up strongly here. A potential rematch between him and Joao Fonseca is on the cards, just a few months after the Brazilian burst onto the scene by knocking Rublev out of the Australian Open. This feels like technically the weakest quarter in Rome, so if Fonseca was to make a deep run at a Masters this year, the moment could be now.
Our prediction: De Minaur beats Rublev
Quarter three
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (3)
- Jack Draper (5)
- Holger Rune (9)
- Grigor Dimitrov (14)
- Ugo Humbert (21)
- Karen Khachanov (23)
- Alex Michelsen (31)
- Sebastian Baez (32)
Matches to watch
- Lorenzo Sonego vs Karen Khachanov (second round)
- Jack Draper vs Luciano Darderi (second round)
This is a pretty interesting quarter that has potential because Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper are on a collision course. Draper just made another ATP 1000 final in Madrid, though he didn’t win it because Ruud bested him in the final.
He’s in form though, and while the conditions here won’t be as good for him, he might be dangerous. Alcaraz is naturally the top favorite to get out of here because everyone in Rome wants to see Alcaraz take on Sinner at some point in this event, and to get that, he needs to win this quarter. But, Draper beat them in their last meeting earlier this year.
There are some other nice names like Holger Rune, who has played some really solid tennis lately. He’s also dealt with injuries, so we don’t know whether he will be fully healthy here. Common sense says yes, after he skipped over Madrid, but time will tell.
Our prediction: Alcaraz beats Rune
Quarter four
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (2)
- Lorenzo Musetti (8)
- Daniil Medvedev (10)
- Arthur Fils (13)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (18)
- Alexei Popyrin (19)
- Denis Shapovalov (27)
- Brandon Nakashima (28)
Matches to watch
- Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jiri Lehecka (second round)
- Lorenzo Musetti vs Hamad Medjedovic (second round)
The final quarter should give some really good matchups. Not only do we have the second seed, Alexander Zverev, but we also have an in-form Lorenzo Musetti, who just played really well in Madrid. Read more about Musetti’s racquet.
Expect him to want to continue that at the Italian Open, where he will have the fans backing him. Daniil Medvedev lurks in this quarter and could do some damage as a former champion, while Stefanos Tsitsipas is also a former finalist with plenty to prove.
Denis Shapovalov loves to play in Rome and has done well historically, and Arthur Fils is looking for redemption after playing a horribly bad event in Madrid. This feels like the quarter that is the biggest coin flip, with any of half a dozen players capable of grabbing the bull by the horns.
Our prediction: Musetti beats Tsitsipas
Final weekend predictions for men’s Italian Open
- Semi – Sinner beats de Minaur
- Semi – Alcaraz beats Musetti
- Final – Alcaraz beats Sinner
We do expect Jannik Sinner to return in really good shape. While he might need a few matches to get back into the swing of things, he’s been practising competitively and should be ready to go.
Even if he missed a lot of time, the Italian has been so much better than others in the field when he actually played that he likely won’t have any issues returning. This is why we’re predicting him to go all the way to the final.
Alcaraz should be able to return to a decent shape as well, as he missed Madrid and should be raring to go. This is a chance for him to get some clay tennis in before Roland Garros, so expect him to take this one seriously.
As such, he’s the second-best in the world and should be able to go to the final. Now, in the final, we expect the physicality of Alcaraz to overwhelm Sinner as it did in the past, though the Italian will likely give it his all and only narrowly miss out on the trophy.
WTA Italian Open draw
The women’s event in Rome follows the same format as the men’s, with a 96-player draw over seven rounds, and the top 32 seeds getting byes into the second round. Here’s our analysis:
Quarter one
Seeds
- Aryna Sabalenka (1)
- Qinwen Zheng (8)
- Elena Rybakina (11)
- Daria Kasatkina (14)
- Donna Vekic (20)
- Leylah Fernandez (24)
- Magdalena Frech (26)
- Sofia Kenin (31)
Matches to watch
- Alexandra Eala vs Marta Kostyuk (round one)
- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Katie Boulter (round two)
All things considered, this is a draw that world number one Aryna Sabalenka will be glad about. She is by far the best player here, and while there are some players like Elena Rybakina who could trouble her, nobody here looks strong enough to stop Sabalenka.
Qinwen Zheng is a decent player, but on clay, her dangerous attacking style gets a bit neutralized. Other players like Donna Vekic and Leylah Fernandez have weapons, but overall, they are not consistent enough. Sabalenka, provided that she plays her best tennis, should be able to roll through here.
After all, she made the final in all four of the last events she played, winning two of those—including the most recent one, the Madrid Open.
Our prediction: Sabalenka beats Vekic
Quarter two
Seeds
- Coco Gauff (4)
- Mirra Andreeva (7)
- Emma Navarro (10)
- Amanda Anisimova (15)
- Ekaterina Alexandrova (21)
- Clara Tauson (22)
- Linda Noskova (30)
- Magda Linette (32)
Matches to watch
- Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Emma Raducanu (second round)
- Emma Navarro vs Marketa Vondrousova (second round)
This is a really strong quarter with essentially six players that could win it. Coco Gauff has been in top form and could emerge winning from this one. Mira Andreeva has taken a step back, but she can always find that amazing level again.
Emma Navarro is a capable player who has had problems against some of the best, but she knows tennis, and that makes her dangerous. Amanda Anisimova can play top tennis on clay as well.
Ekaterina Alexandrova is another player who can catch fire out of nowhere to win multiple matches and make a deep run. The same goes for Clara Tauson and also players like Linda Noskova and Marketa Vondrousova, who have the tools to do it.
Our prediction: Gauff beats Andreeva
Quarter three
Seeds
- Jessica Pegula (3)
- Jasmine Paolini (6)
- Karolina Muchova (12)
- Diana Shnaider (13)
- Jelena Ostapenko (17)
- Yulia Putintseva (23)
- Elise Mertens (25)
- Ons Jabeur (27)
Matches to watch
- Rebecca Sramkova vs McCartney Kessler (first round)
- Sorana Cirstea vs Diana Shnaider (second round)
This is another quarter where basically anything can happen. First of all, we have Jelena Ostapenko here, which is a coin toss as to what she will produce on the court. Yulia Putintseva is another tough player capable of making somebody’s life miserable.
Elise Mertens is always good for a few wins. Then we have Ons Jabeur, who has made the final here before, so she can play well. Diana Shnaider can beat anybody in the draw on her best day, as can Karolina Muchova, if she is hopefully healthy enough to play.
Jasmine Paolini will be tough to oust and possibly could go all the way, as she’ll have the crowd heavily backing her. Then we have Jessica Pegula, who has played well in Rome before, so it’s a quarter where literally anything can happen.
Our prediction: Paolini beats Pegula
Quarter four
Seeds
- Iga Swiatek (2)
- Madison Keys (5)
- Paula Badosa (9)
- Elina Svitolina (16)
- Beatriz Haddad Maia (18)
- Liudmila Samsonova (19)
- Anna Kalinskaya (28)
- Diane Collins (29)
Matches to watch
- Iga Swiatek vs Elina Avanesyan (first round)
- Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Mayar Sherif (second round)
This final quarter could yield a finalist because we have a few players here that are capable of that. Iga Swiatek is naturally the first one because this should be a slower clay court, much more to her liking than Madrid or even Stuttgart.
Paula Badosa is another dangerous player who could go all the way here. Madison Keys is a player you can never count out, considering the power she has. Elina Svitolina won here multiple times in the past and is in good form.
Other players like Liudmila Samsonova, Beatriz Haddad Maia and Anna Kalinskaya are also quite dangerous, so overall, a pretty strong quarter.
Our prediction: Swiatek beats Badosa
Final weekend predictions for women’s Madrid Masters
- Semi – Sabalenka beats Gauff
- Semi – Swiatek beats Paolini
- Final – Swiatek beats Sabalenka
Our predicted final should not be shocking, even though it is yet to happen this season.
Sabalenka has been one of the best the past 12 months and will likely overcome Gauff, much like she did in the Madrid Open final. The slower circumstances might help Gauff a little bit, but it’s a match-up problem more than anything else.
Swiatek should be able to overcome Paolini because the movement advantage is on her side, and she is the better baseliner than Paolini. What the Italian has in fighting spirit won’t be enough to oust Swiatek, who is still on a good run of results despite not being as flawless as she was in recent years.
In the final, we’re expecting that Swiatek wins, which may come as a little unexpected given the pair’s contrasting form. However, her movement—which is the best on clay and really shines through in these slower conditions—should be enough to win in Rome.
