The first Grand Slam of the season is only weeks away and, as always, it’s the Australian Open. Tennis betting sites have released their odds, so let’s take a look at which players might be overrated and which might be underrated. This is subject to change because we’re quite a bit away from January 12th when it begins, but let’s see what the early Australian Open odds are.
- Aryna Sabalenka – Correct @ 3.25 (+225)
First thing’s first – we want to acknowledge the odds that we feel are bang on. Aryna Sabalenka won the last two editions of the Australian Open, and she’s the favorite for this upcoming edition as well.
Her odds of 3.25 shouldn’t be a major shocker because she’s been brilliant here. Also, some of her key rivals like Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek tend to struggle a bit early on in the year. Her Australian Open odds this year are appropriate to how much of a favorite she really is, especially with Swiatek not having a chance to properly have a preseason.
- Iga Swiatek – Overrated @ 4.25 (+350)
Iga Swiatek is one of the best players in the world with some pretty positive results in Australia over the years, but she will enter this year without any sort of prep due to her one-month ban.
That’s far from ideal because she is a rhythm-based player and she has shown struggles in the past if the prep isn’t good enough. With all that in mind, her odds are a bit too short. The Australian Open is a unique event, and not getting any kind of prep before it will impact her. So as of now, Swiatek at 4.25 seems overrated.
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- Qinwen Zheng – Underrated @ 11.00 (+1000)
Zheng (image on top) is a player who made the final of the Australian Open last year and generally one that seems to be destined for a major breakout in 2025. She has shown in 2024 that she’s capable of winning the big matches and Australia does seem to fit her stylistically. With that in mind, it’s not impossible to see her as the second or third favorite, which she isn’t according to the latest Australian Open odds. We think that she might be a bit undersold here.
- Naomi Osaka – Underrated @ 23.00 (+2200)
Another player that seems to be underrated a little bit is Naomi Osaka. According to the latest Australian Open odds, Osaka is the seventh favorite, which might not seem like an underselling, but quite a few people expected her to really turn it up in 2025.
Osaka did okay in 2024, but now it’s time to get back to the top if she’s capable, and some of her best tennis has come in Melbourne over the years. She might just go on a heater here and if she does, she could win it, so from that point of view, her odds might be a bit undersold.
- Jessica Pegula – Underrated @ 26.00 (+2500)
With all due respect to the rest of the field, Jessica Pegula being behind Jasmine Paolini and Mirra Andreeva on the favorites list to win the Australian Open seems a bit absurd.
Mostly because she stood in the last Grand Slam final that was played in New York. She’s also very experienced and can play well down under. She’s done it before and is generally one of the purest hitters on hard courts so she will have a chance.
According to the latest betting odds, her chances aren’t big by any stretch of the imagination. But, we think that’s a bit of an undersell because she certainly can go far and deep if she does play her best tennis which is somewhat expected.
- Mirra Andreeva – Overrated @ 26.00 (+2500)
While Andreeva is officially listed among the favourites or rather players with solid odds of winning the event, we think it’s very unlikely. Andreeva has been great, and 2024 has been a step up, but her latest Australian Open odds seem quite a bit inflated.
It’s hard to see how she’s going to be able to win the event. It’s a big undertaking, one she hasn’t shown herself capable of doing yet. She’s got some maturing to do, and there are simply much better players right now who have bigger chances. The Russian is a pretty big overrate in our opinion.
- Diana Shnaider – Underrated @ 41.00 (+4000)
The Russian that is underrated in the most recent AO odds is Diana Shnaider. She’s a player who is capable of playing incredible tennis on hard courts and has made a tremendous step forward in 2024.
Shnaider almost made it to the top 10, finishing with 55 wins on the season, 31 of those coming on hard courts. She is also capable of winning matches in Melbourne, having won four in 2024 when she made it through the qualifiers to the second round, taking a set off of Maria Sakkari. Her chances are certainly bigger than her odds of 41.00 would have you believe.
