AO Predictions and Odds: Berrettini vs Rune and Fonseca – Sonego

Written by: David Barisic | January 15, 2025
berrettini tennis

ATP Australian Open 1/32-Finals

Fonseca – Sonego: 16.01.2025 06:00 CEST

H2H: 1-0

Joao Fonseca has now won 14 straight matches and is one of the best, if not the best, upcoming players on the tour right now. Fonseca won the Challenger title in Canberra in his season-opening tournament without losing a set. In Melbourne, Fonseca qualified for the main draw tournament without losing a single set. Yesterday, in the opening main draw round, Fonseca defeated Rublev in straight sets, as we predicted. It was an outstanding, fearless performance from the young Brazilian who has now won 22 consecutive sets. 

Lorenzo Sonego has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Auckland, Lorenzo reached the second round, losing against Michelsen in tight straight sets. So far this season, Sonego has played two preparation tournaments and lost in the second round each time. Here in the Australian Open, Lorenzo defeated Wawrinka in four tight sets. In the fourth set, Lorenzo saved three consecutive set points. After that, Sonego broke Stan’s serve and won the match in four sets. Last year in Melbourne, Sonego reached the second round of the Australian Open, losing against Alcaraz in four tight sets.

Best Bets for Fonseca vs Sonego:

According to the tennis odds, Fonseca is the big favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Joao had an amazing first-round performance. He was unplayable. We believe that at this moment, Fonseca is a far better player than Sonego, and we expect him to dominate again.

In our opinion, Fonseca covering the games handicap is a good value bet for today.

Value bet / the best odds: Joao Fonseca -5.5 games handicap @ 1.73 | -137.5

holger rune 2024
Holger Rune

Berrettini – Rune: 16.01.2025 07:00 CEST

H2H: 1-4

Matteo Berrettini has won three of his last five matches. At the beginning of the season in Brisbane, Matteo lost against Thompson in three tight sets. In his opening Australian Open round, he defeated Norrie in four sets after losing the first set 6-7. Berrettini was injured at the beginning of the 2024 season, so he skipped the Australian Open last time around. His last appearance here was in 2023, losing against Murray in the opening round. His biggest result was in 2022 when he reached the semifinals. 

Holger Rune has won three of his last five matches. At the beginning of the season, he played in Brisbane, losing against Lehecka in the opening round in straight sets. In the opening Australian Open round, Rune defeated Zhang in five tight sets. Rune had quite a disappointing 2024 season and hopes for a better season this year. Last year in Melbourne, the Dane was upset by Cazaux in the second round, losing in four sets.

Best Bets for Berrettini vs Rune:

According to the bookies, this should be a 50-50 match, but we disagree. Matteo, when healthy, is always a dark horse in the tournament. He looked great in the opening round against Norrie. On the other hand, Rune had a favorable draw but still struggled against Zhang. Rune is still far from his best level, and we expect Berrettini to win this match.

That being said, Berrettini winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Berrettini winning @ 1.80 | -125

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David Barisic