The 2026 ATP Finals get underway in Turin on Sunday, November 15, with the season’s top eight players chasing the year-end title. Carlos Alcaraz arrives as the clear favorite after back-to-back titles in Vienna and Paris.
Four players are making their debut, while two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner misses out with a knee injury.
This preview covers my 2026 ATP Finals predictions for both round-robin groups, the latest odds, my semifinal and final picks and three bets I’d suggest backing in Turin. There’s a surprise group winner in there too.
Check also our gear/racquet preview for Turin.
When and where is the 2026 ATP Finals?
- The 2026 ATP Finals run from Sunday, November 15 to Sunday, November 22 at the Inalpi Arena in Turin
- Eight players are split into two groups of four, with the top two from each group advancing to the semifinals
- Each group winner plays the runner-up from the other group in the semis on Saturday, November 21
- The final is on Sunday, November 22 at 6pm local time
- An undefeated champion collects $5,171,000
- Zverev (2018 and 2021) and Medvedev (2020) are the only former champions in the field
The 2026 ATP Finals field
Here are the groups, with seedings in brackets:
- Group John McEnroe – Zverev (1), Shelton (3), Fils (6), Jodar (8)
- Group Ivan Lendl – Alcaraz (2), Medvedev (4), Cobolli (5), Tiafoe (7)
Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev are back as former champions, and Ben Shelton is here for the second time. The other four – Flavio Cobolli, Arthur Fils, Frances Tiafoe and Rafael Jodar – are all debutants.
Jodar only locked up the last spot at the Paris Masters last week. Taylor Fritz needed to beat Alcaraz in the quarterfinals to qualify, and he had two match points to do it. Alcaraz saved both, so the eighth spot went to the Spanish youngster instead.
Novak Djokovic will not be playing in the 2026 ATP Finals – he needed a strong result in Paris and couldn’t deliver.
Who’s the favorite to win the 2026 ATP Finals?
Bookmakers have Alcaraz odds-on to win the title at the time of writing:
- Carlos Alcaraz – 1.85 (-118)
- Alexander Zverev – 4.70 (+370)
- Ben Shelton – 9.00 (+800)
- Daniil Medvedev – 12.00 (+1100)
- Rafael Jodar – 12.00 (+1100)
- Arthur Fils – 15.00 (+1400)
- Frances Tiafoe – 25.00 (+2400)
- Flavio Cobolli – 50.00 (+4900)
There’s no denying that Alcaraz’s price makes sense, even though he isn’t known as an indoor specialist.
The Spaniard missed more than four months with a right wrist injury earlier this year, yet since returning is 20-2 and has already lifted three trophies in Tokyo, Vienna and Paris. He’s riding a 10-match winning streak indoors. Paris was his first title at that event and the biggest indoor title of his career. Add the Australian Open, where he completed the career Grand Slam, and Doha, and that’s five titles for the year.
Alcaraz has never won this tournament, and he’s been open about how badly he wants it.
Zverev drifts out to 4.70 (+370), which is unusual for a world No 1, but speaks to the current ATP field.
He won Roland Garros and the US Open this year and made the Wimbledon final. However, his form since New York has tailed off. He lost to Alex de Minaur in the Vienna semis, then lost his first match as No 1 to Lorenzo Musetti in Paris, 7-6(5), 6-2. Heading into Paris, he was 3-9 against top-10 players this year – the worst record of any No 1 in the Open Era.
Following Zverev, Shelton comes in at 9.00 (+800) before the remainder of the field is even longer, at 12.00 (+1100) and longer.
Group John McEnroe predictions
This is the group to keep an eye on. Zverev opens against Jodar in the day session on Sunday, with Shelton and Fils playing at night.
Zverev
Zverev’s head-to-heads in this group are about as good as they get. He’s 6-0 against Shelton, 5-2 against Fils and 1-0 against Jodar. The only two players in the field with winning records against him are Alcaraz and Medvedev, and they’re both in the other group.
The German has two titles here already, and the indoor hardcourt in Turin suits his serve. Even in a patchy stretch, I expect him to get out of the group. I just don’t see him doing it unbeaten.
Shelton
Shelton arrives off the best year of his career, with four titles including Canada, a first major final at the US Open and a career-high ranking of No 4.
He backed that up in Paris last week, making the final and leading Alcaraz 4-2 in the second set before going down 7-6(5), 7-5. Remember, it was Shelton who knocked Alcaraz out of the US Open in a five-set epic.
Turin hasn’t been kind to him though (he went 0-3 here last year). Still, his serve is firing as well as anyone’s on tour, and the American is a better player than he was 12 months ago.
Fils
Fils missed eight months of 2025 with a stress fracture in his lower back. Since returning in February, he’s made the Doha final and the Miami semis, won Barcelona in April and claimed his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati. A career-high No 7 ranking has followed, and he’s the first Frenchman to play this event since Gael Monfils a decade ago.
Shelton leads their head-to-head 2-1, with both of his wins coming on indoor hardcourts, and Fils is 1-2 against Jodar. Their Sunday night match is huge for both of them, and the winner will be well placed to reach the semis.
Jodar
Jodar went from outside the top 150 to No 11 in a single season, having cracked the top 10 for the first time earlier this month. He won his first tour-level title in Marrakech, made the final in Washington and reached his first Masters 1000 final in Shanghai in October.
He’s also beaten Fils twice. But he only got into Turin when Fritz lost in Paris, where Casper Ruud beat him in the second round. Opening against the world No 1 on debut is a tough start. I think he takes a set or two this week without winning a match.
My Group John McEnroe prediction
- 1st – Shelton (3-0)
- 2nd – Zverev (2-1)
- 3rd – Fils (1-2)
- 4th – Jodar (0-3)
I’m backing Shelton to finally beat Zverev. Zverev has had this matchup under control for years, but he hasn’t faced this version of Shelton indoors, and he isn’t playing with much confidence right now.
Zverev still gets through in second. Fils beats Jodar to finish third, but losing to Shelton on Sunday night costs him.
Group Ivan Lendl predictions
Alcaraz opens against Tiafoe on Monday afternoon, before Medvedev and Cobolli close out the day.
Alcaraz
Alcaraz leads Medvedev 7-3, Tiafoe 2-1 and Cobolli 1-0. He’s in better form than anyone in the field. He made the final here last year and lost to Sinner, and with Sinner out, this is the best chance he’s had to win it.
The one wobble came against Fritz in Paris, when he was a point from going out twice. He got through it and won the title anyway, so I’m not reading too much into it.
Medvedev
Medvedev’s had a real revival in 2026. He won Brisbane to start the year, then added Dubai, Hangzhou and Almaty. He also made the Indian Wells final, beating Alcaraz in the semis on the way.
Turin is familiar ground too. He won the title in 2020 and is back after missing out last year. Tiafoe trails him 6-2, and Cobolli has only beaten him once in three meetings. I still think he’s playing for second.
Cobolli
With Sinner out, Cobolli carries the home hopes. He’s had a breakthrough season, reaching the Roland Garros final, where he took Zverev to five sets, and the semis in Cincinnati.
He talks about feeling more like himself when the pressure’s on, and the Inalpi Arena will be rocking every time he walks out. But he’s 1-4 against Tiafoe and 1-2 against Medvedev, and he’s the longest price in the field at 50.00 (+4900). I can see the home fans dragging him through a set or two, but I don’t see him winning a match.
Tiafoe
Tiafoe is having the best season of his career. Bringing in Mark Kovacs as coach paid off fast – the biggest title of his career in Halle, a Cincinnati final and a third US Open semi.
His last match was rough, though. Four match points came and went against Quentin Halys in the second round in Paris.
Remember that Medvedev leads their head-to-head 6-2 too. I’ve got him beating Cobolli and finishing third.
My Group Ivan Lendl prediction
- 1st – Alcaraz (3-0)
- 2nd – Medvedev (2-1)
- 3rd – Tiafoe (1-2)
- 4th – Cobolli (0-3)
ATP Finals 2026 semifinal & final betting predictions
- Semifinal – Alcaraz to beat Zverev
- Semifinal – Shelton to beat Medvedev
- Final – Alcaraz to beat Shelton
Alcaraz vs Zverev is the semi we all want to see. Alcaraz leads their surprisingly close head-to-head 7-6, but arrives in much better form, and I’ve got him in straight sets.
Medvedev stands miles back to return and loves a long rally, while Shelton wants the points over quickly. Indoors, I think the big lefty serve wins out, and Shelton makes his second final in two weeks.
That sets up a Paris rematch. Shelton ran him close there, but Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 4-1, and I can’t see him letting this one slip. He wins his first ATP Finals title.
Best bets for Turin 2026
- Alcaraz to reach the final @ 1.42 (-238)
- Alcaraz to win the title @ 1.85 (-118)
- Shelton to win the title @ 9.00 (+800)
Alcaraz to reach the final is the lowest-risk option here. He only has to get through the group and one semi to land it.
For a bigger return, back him to win the title at 1.85 (-118). He’s the best player in the field, he’s in form, and Sinner isn’t there to stop him.
My value play is Shelton at 9.00 (+800). If my group prediction is right, he avoids Alcaraz until the final, and he’s beaten the Spaniard on the biggest stage already this year.
