It’s time for quarterfinals in Tokyo, with Carlos Alcaraz taking on Denis Shapovalov and Jaume Munar facing Kyrian Jacquet in the first two clashes. Here are our previews, along with some predictions.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov
The defending champion and top seed is 7-1 since returning from his four-and-a-half-month wrist injury layoff, with the only loss coming in that five-set epic against Ben Shelton at the US Open. He hasn’t made life easy for himself in Tokyo, though, needing three sets to get past Alex Michelsen, 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1, before storming back from 6-2 down in the first-set tiebreak against Matteo Arnaldi to win 7-6(6), 6-1.
Shapovalov has quietly put together a solid week, beating Sho Shimabukuro and then grinding past Alejandro Tabilo, though he does not have a good record against top-five opponents.
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 at the 2023 French Open and 6-2, 6-4 at Indian Wells in 2025.
Predictions and best bets
Shapovalov’s lefty serve and one-handed backhand can cause problems for anyone on a good day, but Alcaraz has dealt with this fairly easy both times they’ve met, and he’s now built real momentum since coming back. I don’t see an upset coming in this one.
My bet: Alcaraz to win in straight sets.
Jaume Munar vs Kyrian Jacquet
Munar came through qualifying and has been the story of the week in Tokyo, taking down Taylor Fritz in the first round before cruising past Jaime Faria 6-1, 6-1 in round two, breaking the Portuguese lucky loser six times. It’s his fourth quarterfinal of the season.
Jacquet is a special exempt entry, but he’s playing like a seeded player, beating Holger Rune 6-3, 6-1 in Rune’s first proper match in his comeback and then recording the biggest win of his career over 19th-ranked Luciano Darderi, 6-3, 7-6(5), serving 15 aces against a single double fault. He’s through to his third career ATP quarterfinal and sits at a career-high ranking of No. 86.
This is a first meeting between the two.
Predictions and best bets
Both players have surprised a lot so far and their confidence seem sky high, the winner will face the winner of Alcaraz vs. Shapovalov in the semifinals. Jacquet’s serve has been the more dangerous weapon all week, but Munar’s exceptional court coverage and looking how he has played under pressure recently, usually win out in these types of matchups.
