It’s semifinal day in Cincinnati and we really have some in-form Americans on tour at the moment, Frances Tiafoe will take on Brandon Nakashima following impressive wins for both of them in the quarters. Below we’ll also cover Flavio Cobolli vs. Arthur Fils with our betting picks.
Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils
This could well be a very entertaining match.
Cobolli has made a habit of doing things the hard way in Cincinnati, needing three sets in all four of his matches so far, the latest a recovery job from a set down to beat home favorite Tommy Paul 2-6, 6-3, 6-4. It’s his maiden Masters 1000 semifinal and guarantees him a new career-high ranking of world No. 6.
Fils, by contrast, has been the cleanest performer left in the draw, dropping only one set all week and putting together his most complete match of the tournament to shut down Thiago Agustin Tirante’s run, 6-3, 6-2. It’s his sixth Masters 1000 semifinal and pushes him back inside the top 20.
Fils holds a 2-0 head-to-head lead over Cobolli and their last meeting was last year in Monte Carlo.
Predictions and best bets
Cobolli has shown he can grind out three-setters all week, but that comes at a cost, and Fils looks like the fresher, sharper player heading into today with both the recent form and the head-to-head in his favor. I love the fighting and focus from Cobolli but I’d lean toward Fils finding a way through in straight sets today.
My bet: Fils to win in straight sets, at odds around 2.00 or +100.
Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima
It’s an all-American semifinal, and Tiafoe has been in ruthless form, dropping just one set all week and knocking out two top-10 seeds along the way in Felix Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti, closing out the latter 7-6(2), 7-5. He’s chasing a second Cincinnati final in three years, having lost to Jannik Sinner here in 2024.
Nakashima has been the hottest player on tour outside the very top over the last two weeks, backing up his run to the Montreal final with a stunning upset of sixth seed Taylor Fritz, 7-6(9), 4-6, 6-3, to reach back-to-back Masters 1000 semifinals. He leads the tour in hard-court wins this season with 22.
Tiafoe holds a commanding 6-1 head-to-head edge, 5-1 on hard courts, and their only meeting this year came in the Acapulco semifinals, where Tiafoe won in three sets.
Predictions and best bets
Nakashima’s level right now is hard to ignore, but the head-to-head with Tiafoe is about as lopsided as it gets between two players this close in the rankings, and Tiafoe has looked just as sharp this week. Nakashima has also been getting through some very tough matches and I think Tiafoe will edge it in the end
My bet: Tiafoe to win in three sets.
