We have arrived at the Cincy quarterfinals and we’ve seen a few upsets in the last few days, will it continue? Here’s a preview for two interesting matches of today 20 Aug, Flavio Cobolli vs. Tommy Paul and Arthur Fils vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante, with our betting predictions and best bets.
Flavio Cobolli vs Tommy Paul
Cobolli has been the definition of a grinder this week, needing three sets in every single match so far, most recently rallying, in an impressive way, from a set down to end Rafael Jodar’s breakout run 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3. It’s his first hard-court Masters 1000 quarterfinal, and he arrives having peaked at a career-high No. 8 earlier this month off the back of his run to the Roland Garros final. More on Cobolli’s racquet.
Paul produced the result of the tournament so far, saving a match point and coming back from a 4-6, 4-3 hole to stun top seed Alexander Zverev 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-4. Like Cobolli, he’s needed a third set in every match this week, and this is now his 50th tour-level quarterfinal.
The two have met once before, also here in Cincinnati two years ago, with Cobolli coming out on top 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 after Paul had a match point of his own to work with.
Predictions and best bets
Both players are in good form, and they are running on similar amounts of momentum and fatigue after three-set battles to get here.
Paul enters as the odds favorite as the home player but Cobolli has been the better player over the course of the season and is tough to meet when he gets into the rhythm we’ve seen in the last few matches. I think he can win again vs Paul if he can keep down the number of unforced errors.
My bet: Cobolli +2.5 Game Handicap at odds 1.83 or -120.
Arthur Fils vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Fils has been one of the form players of the tournament, dropping just one set all week (a tiebreaker against Lehecka) on his way to a 6-3, 6-4 win over 5th seed Alex de Minaur. It’s his fifth Masters 1000 quarterfinal of the season, tying Jo-Wilfried Tsonga’s 2012 record for a Frenchman, and a win today would push him back into the top 20.
Tirante has been the story of the North American swing though, backing up his second-round upset of Novak Djokovic with wins over Landaluce and then 14th seed Jakub Mensik, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4. It’s his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal, but he’s also played four more matches than Fils across Montreal and Cincinnati combined, and the physical toll of that workload is a real question mark.
H2H? This is a first meeting between the two.
Predictions
Tirante’s run has been remarkable, but Fils is on a higher level when completely injury free and he looks really fresh and sharp. Two big forehands on display today but there are also other levels of Fils game. I’d be surprised if Tirante can cause yet another upset here.
My bet: Fils to win in straight sets
