It’s semifinal day at the Canada Open and we have two players in Shelton and Jodar that has been impressive, but today they have tough challenges. Here’s a preview for today’s semi-finals in Montreal, Ben Shelton vs. Learner Tien and Rafael Jodar vs. Brandon Nakashima, with our predictions and betting tips.
Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien
An all-American, all-lefty semifinal, and the defending champion Shelton has been in ruthless form all week, dropping just one set combined across wins over Brooksby, Bergs, Fonseca and a 6-3, 6-1 demolition of Mensik in the quarters. He’s carrying a 10-match winning streak on Canadian soil into today.
Tien, the 12th seed, has had a slightly easier route on paper, cruising past Tirante and Merida in straight sets to reach his first Masters 1000 semifinal, though he’s dealt with a few smaller injury issues along the way and his serve hasn’t had much pace behind it this week.
The head-to-head is one to watch: Tien actually leads it 2-0, having beaten Shelton on the grass in Mallorca last summer, 6-4, 7-6(2), and again this year at Indian Wells, 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-3. However, the form of Shelton is clearly improved and he’s playing some of his best tennis right now.
Predictions and best bets
Shelton’s level this week has simply been a different tier from anything Tien has shown, and then we have the physical question marks around Tien’s arm against an opponent serving and returning this well. The head-to-head favors Tien, but I think this is the week that trend breaks and Shelton will once again reach the final in Canada.
My bet: Shelton to win in straight sets, at odds around 2.30 or +130.
Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima
Jodar keeps writing new chapters in his breakout season and he might be the best player on tour right now. Fresh off a runner-up finish in Washington just over a week ago, he has beaten Musetti, Lehecka and Fils in Montreal, closing out the quarterfinal 7-6(5), 6-3 to reach his first Masters 1000 semifinal in just his fifth appearance at this level.
Nakashima, at 25 the oldest man left in the draw, has been in career-best form since bringing Wayne Ferreira into his box back in June, reaching semifinals in three of his last four events and playing very “smart” tennis. He was untouchable on serve against Darderi in the quarters, firing 11 aces against a single double-fault in a tidy 77-minute win.
This is a first meeting between the two, who were actually doubles partners together just last week in Washington.
Predictions and best bets
Jodar’s return game has been the standout of his week, breaking Musetti, Lehecka and Fils early and often, and that’s exactly the kind of pressure that can get to a server like Nakashima, who relies more on placement than raw pace. Even Jodar’s serve game has improved and his first-strike tennis is now a real weapon when playing with this extreme confidence as he’s doing at the moment.
My bet: Jodar to win in two sets.
