The penultimate Masters 1000 event and pinnacle of the 2025 Asian Swing is here, with the Shanghai Masters getting underway this Wednesday in China.
With all the big names on the ATP Tour in attendance, who can gain an upper hand in the Race to Turin? Will we see another chapter in the Alcaraz vs Sinner rivalry? What version of Novak Djokovic is going to turn up?
We tackle these questions with a full breakdown of the draw, including a quarter-by-quarter analysis of seeds, matches to watch, and potential upsets.
ATP Shanghai Masters draw
A total of 96 men will fight it out for the Shanghai Masters title over seven rounds, with the top 32 seeds getting byes straight into the second round. Here’s how we expect it will unfold.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (1)
- Alex de Minaur (7)
- Karen Khachanov (9)
- Daniil Medvedev (16)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (18)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (24)
- Brandon Nakashima (29)
- Cam Norrie (30)
Matches to watch
- Learner Tien vs Miomir Kecmanovic (R1)
- Botic van de Zandschulp vs Nuno Borges (R1)
Quarter one sees world No 1 Alcaraz drawn alongside a quartet of motivated seeds in De Minaur, Khachanov, Medvedev and Davidovich Fokina. All four sit between seven and 20 in the Race to Turin, meaning they’re neither qualified, nor eliminated, so have plenty to play for in Shanghai.
Both De Minaur and Medvedev bring recent form with them, having made the semi-finals of the China Open at the time of writing. While Davidovich Fokina and Khachanov exited early at the same event, they’ve each made finals and have wins over top-five players since the Tour hit the hard courts in July.
Despite all this, it’s hard to see anyone in this quarter challenging Alcaraz. The Spaniard’s two biggest rivals are himself, and Sinner. The latter he can’t meet until the final, and the former, he’s doing an excellent job of generating consistency from in 2025.
We tipped against Alcaraz last week to no avail, and it’s a mistake we won’t make twice in a row. The 22-year-old has reached new heights this season, so anything short of a semi-final appearance in Shanghai would be surprising.
Our prediction: Alcaraz beats Khachanov
Quarter two
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (3)
- Lorenzo Musetti (8)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (12)
- Jiri Lehecka (15)
- Jakub Mensik (17)
- Denis Shapovalov (23)
- Luciano Darderi (26)
- Alex Michelsen (28)
Matches to watch
- Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic (R1)
The second quarter in Shanghai is wide open. At least three of the seeds are carrying injuries, with Zverev notably hampered at Laver Cup by a back issue, and Musetti and Mensik both withdrawing injured from the China Open this week. Whether or not these rear their heads in Shanghai is anyone’s guess.
Outside of this, the remaining seeds are mercurial at best. Auger-Aliassime had a good run at the US Open but has been out of action since then, while Lehecka, Shapovalov, Darderi and Michelsen are all hit and miss.
It’s an underwhelming quarter overall, which makes tipping an underdog tempting. The likes of Jesper de Jong, Arthur Rinderknech or Hamad Medjedovic could go on a run if injuries open up their draw.
However, the truly dangerous unseeded players have all fallen in other quarters. So, we’re drawn to the prospect of Auger-Aliassime continuing his US Open form, particularly given he’s just married his long-time girlfriend.
Our prediction: Auger-Aliassime beats Zverev
Quarter three
Seeds
- Novak Djokovic (4)
- Ben Shelton (6)
- Casper Ruud (11)
- Andrey Rublev (13)
- Francisco Cerundolo (19)
- Flavio Cobolli (22)
- Frances Tiafoe (25)
- Gabriel Diallo (31)
Matches to watch
- Adrian Mannarino vs Matteo Berrettini (R1)
- Marin Cilic or Corentin Moutet vs Djokovic (R2)
Two big questions hang over quarter three in Shanghai: what is Djokovic doing here, and how fit is Shelton?
Djokovic has consistently emphasized that Grand Slams are his main priority. With none in the calendar for three and a half months, the Serbian taking time away from his family to play in Shanghai seems like an odd decision. Have his losses to Alcaraz and Sinner this year motivated him to push harder and play a fuller schedule? Or is he simply getting a juicy appearance fee and has little interest in performing this week?
He's back ?
— Rolex Shanghai Masters (@SH_RolexMasters) September 23, 2025
Our 4-time champ, @DjokerNole will return to Shanghai this year!#RolexShanghaiMasters pic.twitter.com/PaF2DPfcM5
For Shelton, the American has been a sensation in 2025, powering his way to a career high of No 6 in the world with a maiden Masters 1000 title in Canada and deep runs at Grand Slams. However, his red-hot hard-court form was brought to an end in New York when injury forced him from the US Open. Shanghai will be his first match back since then, after he withdrew from Tokyo last week due to injury.
Either of these two could easily go on to make the semi-finals here if the right pieces are in place behind the scenes. However, that’s a big if, and we like two other players in this quarter instead: Ruud and Rublev.
Ruud is playing himself into excellent form just in time for an ATP Finals push. The Norwegian very nearly took down Alcaraz in Beijing on Monday and looked crisp all week. Rublev, on the other hand, comes to Shanghai riding a three-match losing streak. However, the Russian is historically strong in China, and putting together some good runs in October would be very Rublev-esque.
Our prediction: Ruud beats Rublev
Quarter four
Seeds
- Jannik Sinner (2)
- Taylor Fritz (5)
- Holger Rune (10)
- Alexander Bublik (14)
- Tomas Machac (20)
- Ugo Humbert (21)
- Tallon Griekspoor (27)
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (32)
Matches to watch
- Fabian Marozsan vs Stan Wawrinka (R1)
The final quarter in Shanghai has two of the Tour’s most consistent players: Sinner and Fritz. Since late June, the two have a combined win-loss of 47-5, with Sinner’s only losses coming at the hands of Alcaraz. Two of the three players Fritz fell to – Davidovich Fokina and Terence Atmane – were on season-best runs, while his other defeat came in Davis Cup action to world No 16 Lehecka.
All this to say, this is a quarter with two very consistent seeds that are tough to pick against. Each are making deep runs this week, with Fritz in the Tokyo final and Sinner in the Beijing final four at the time of writing.
An in-form Rune or Bublik could unseat either of these two. However, in-form is the furthest thing Rune looks from at the moment, with the Dane rolling over in his opening match of the Japan Open last week. Bublik is playing brilliantly – big picture – but he also suffered an early loss recently and has been playing a lot of tennis the past few months.
It’s a conservative prediction, but on the balance of probability, this quarter will hold seed and see a Sinner vs Fritz quarter-final.
Our prediction: Sinner beats Fritz
Final weekend predictions for 2025 Shanghai Masters
- Semi – Alcaraz beats Auger-Aliassime
- Semi – Sinner beats Ruud
- Final – Sinner beats Alcaraz
Clear your calendars, because we’re predicting meeting number 16 between Sinner and Alcaraz next weekend.
Should our quarter predictions hold, each will be too strong for their semi-final opponents. That’s not to underestimate the ability of Auger-Aliassime and Ruud; it’s just that Sinner and Alcaraz have more tools in their toolkit, and will be highly motivated to make it through to the final to take on their archrival again.
This time, we’re going against the grain and picking Sinner to gain revenge on Alcaraz. Alcaraz has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two, but Sinner’s most recent win was just two months ago at Wimbledon. After receiving a thorough beating in the US Open final, he’ll be intent on getting one back over Alcaraz, as he was verbal about in defeat.
We expect he will have put a lot of time into strategizing how to dethrone the Spaniard in Shanghai, and if given the opportunity, he’ll pounce. Read more on Sinner’s racquet.
