The 2025 French Open is one of the most open Grand Slams that men’s tennis has seen in decades. While Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner sit ahead of the pack – as they demonstrated in Rome over the weekend – there are still realistically be multiple players capable of winning the event.
Read on for our breakdown of the top 10 title contenders in Paris, based on form, clay pedigree and overall Grand Slam resumes heading into the 2025 French Open.
- Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz hasn’t played much on clay this year due to injuries, but as the reigning champion, he remains one of the most likely players to win. He’s played 15 of his 25 finals on clay, so he’s a player who is very familiar with the surface.
Growing up in Spain does that to a player, and he proved in Rome that his injury worries are behind him. He didn’t play his best tennis there, but he played well enough to make the final. In the final, he nearly dropped the opening set but then rallied to win it and cruised to the finish line.
That result and his general performance on clay, including last year’s Roland Garros triumph, make him the most likely player to win this year as well. That’s why he’s at the top of the power rankings heading into the French Open. If he plays his best or close to his best, nobody is stopping him.
More on Alcaraz racquet setup. These are the current outright winner odds on Alcaraz to win in Paris: 2.37, +137.5, 11/8.
- Jannik Sinner
The Italian Open in Rome was the first clay event Sinner played since last year. The reason was the suspension he received earlier this year, which prevented him from playing at all since the Australian Open. His sole prep for Roland Garros was the Italian Open.
But, that doesn’t matter much because Sinner was already able to play fantastic tennis and make the final. He’s always been a very good player on clay because his combination of power and precision makes it very hard for any player to hit through him, on a surface where hitting through a player is very important.
There were question marks over his form with weeks away from the courts, but if the Rome run proved anything, then it’s that very few can beat him. That is good enough for being number two in our power rankings.
- Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud has done some tremendous things on clay this year, but that shouldn’t come as a massive surprise to anyone because the Norwegian has been a very consistent performer on this surface for a while.
He’s won over 20 matches on clay each season since 2021, proving just how good he can be on this surface. Plus, he won the Madrid Open this year, which was a stellar return to form for Ruud, who has been struggling a bit in recent years.
From a player who had a chance to become world number one when he contested the US Open final some years ago to a player that was essentially out of the top 10—that return to form is what makes him so high on this power rankings list, but it’s not the only thing.
There is also the fact that he contested two French Open finals already, which is a sort of experience not many players can bank on. The combination of experience and form gives Ruud an edge and places him this high on the rankings.
- Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti proved in Rome what a fantastic clay player he can be by not only making the semi-final but also barely losing to Alcaraz in that semi-final. We’re talking about a player who essentially made a fool out of Alexander Zverev, who is fantastic on this surface.
We’re also talking about a player who nearly bested Novak Djokovic twice at Roland Garros at a time when the Serbian was actually playing close to his best tennis. We’re also talking about a player who finished third at last year’s Olympics, which were played on those same courts.
He’s also one of the few players that has actually bested Carlos Alcaraz on a clay court before, doing so in the Hamburg final a couple of years ago. The maturity which he’s shown this year, the track record on clay, and his current form warrant him as number four on our power rankings. Read more about Musetti and his current gear.
- Alexander Zverev
We realize that having Zverev down at number five in our power rankings might turn a few heads. The German has had a funny year in the sense that his results have been all over the place. He started well in Australia, making the final and looking really solid. Then he had about two months where he couldn’t beat anyone.
He found himself a little bit on clay, winning the Munich event on native soil and then also winning a couple of matches in Rome. He didn’t win the event as he did last year because his form is still a bit shaky, but almost no player has been as good as Zverev in Paris in the past couple of years.
Zverev made the French Open semi-finals a couple of years in a row before making the final last year. It wasn’t an easy loss in the final because Zverev actually led 2-1 in sets after three sets were played. He didn’t last, and Alcaraz was able to overturn the result, but the German has plenty to be excited about as Paris inches closer.
The reason he’s this low in our power rankings, however, is his inexplicable inability to win a Grand Slam. Truth be told, if he was taking on Ruud or Musetti in a semi-final, you’d feel more confident in his opponent coming up clutch, such is Zverev’s track record of failing to get over the line.
- Francisco Cerundolo
This is a player who might have flown under the radar for a long time, but Francisco Cerundolo has the game to essentially beat anyone on a tennis court. The Argentine has proved it in the past, playing some players really close, including Djokovic, whom he nearly bested last year at Roland Garros.
He has a devastating baseline game which can be overwhelming when it’s really clicking, and he knows this surface as his wallet, having grown up on it in Argentina. He’s also had a really good year so far, making one clay final and reaching a couple of semi-finals, including in Rome, where Ruud proved better.
If he finds his best tennis and has a bit of luck with the draw, Cerundolo could easily find himself making a semi-final, and who knows what happens then?
These matches can go either way, and he has already proven that he can be a tough out for any player, including the best, because Sinner barely bested him in Rome recently.
- Jack Draper
Another player who deserved a spot on this list is Jack Draper because Draper has been the breakout star of this year. While the British player isn’t really known for his clay success, as he hasn’t really played that much on the surface so far in his career, his tennis can be so overwhelming that it doesn’t really matter.
He’s proven that he can play on this surface, having won matches, and making the Madrid Open final was a positive sign, even though that event plays very differently compared to regular clay which he will find in Paris. What is Jack Draper’s racquet?
Draper also played at the Olympics as well, which is good experience to have, and he played pretty well there. Overall, he’s just a player who can beat anybody on his day, and that doesn’t really depend on the surface. It’s not impossible to see him do well in Paris—certainly well enough to find himself on this list.
- Novak Djokovic
This list wouldn’t be complete without Novak Djokovic, and it doesn’t matter how many matches he won this year. Yes, the Serbian hasn’t been very good this year. He’s actually been pretty poor outside of that Miami Open run, which realistically has to be looked at more as an aberration than a standard at this point.
Even so, he couldn’t be any higher on this list for several reasons. Djokovic has contested two clay matches this year and lost both of them. He faced Matteo Arnaldi and Alejandro Tabilo—so not exactly world-beaters—and still lost.
He will play at the Geneva Open to try and tighten up things ahead of the French Open, but there are a couple of fundamental problems with his tennis that likely won’t be fixed. He’s slower than ever on a court, and that’s a massive problem, especially in the era of big hitters.
He’s also shown himself to struggle with long matches, as his body has broken down a couple of times when faced with such a thing in recent years, including last year at Roland Garros, where he sustained an injury. With the form being nonexistent and the physical shape declining, Djokovic chances at the Roland Garros remain rather low.
But, write off the greats at your own peril – remember what he did on these courts less than a year ago, when he’d been having a terrible season? Hint: it rhymes with Polympic Bold Wedal.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas remains a proper enigma to anybody that follows tennis. At times, he still looks like a player who was essentially slated to be a top three player for the entirety of his career with several Grand Slams in his bag—but that’s the problem. He only looks like that player at times.
Take his most recent match at the Italian Open against Arthur Fils. He was looking amazing, looking like the Tsitsipas of old, sliding on the clay and hitting the forehand. Then, he dropped his serve and completely fell apart, losing the match some 20 minutes later after dominating the opening set.
That’s not great news because he’s a player that has gone backward for a while now. From winning 64 matches in 2022 to 52 the year after, to only 47 last year, and now being on pace for even less than that with 17 wins in the middle of May—his form has been less than impressive.
And still, we’re talking about a player who has all the tools to do well on clay and who has stood in the French Open final before. If he manages to find his best tennis, he will still be dangerous because the tools are still there.
- Arthur Fils
To conclude this list, we’re given the number 10 spot to Arthur Fils, a player who has been ready for a massive breakout for a while now. Fils is a native French player who will have massive crowd support, and he might just ride that support to a really deep run.
He’s a player who is capable on clay, showing his potential this year with a quarter-final in Monte-Carlo, a semi-final in Barcelona, and another solid outing in Rome. He has a good serve and a massive forehand that can be impossible to counter.
He has an 88-55 record on the surface and will have the fans backing him heavily. All the ingredients are there for a vintage French run, akin to what Gael Monfils did many years ago when he made the semi-final, so Fils deserves a place on this list.
Honorable mentions
There are a few names that we came close to including in our power rankings, but didn’t quite make the cut.
Holger Rune is a player who also could make a deep run at the event. He has had decent runs in Paris in the past, but his body remains a question mark, as any time he starts to play good tennis, his body fails him. Case and point, after beating Alcaraz in the Barcelona Open final this year – an incredible achievement – he withdrew from his opening match in Madrid and has been a non-event the rest of the clay swing.
Daniil Medvedev is a player who can do anything he wants, but nobody really knows what that will be in Paris. He might do well, or he might fail spectacularly—with only time being able to tell what will happen.
Alex de Minaur had a good run in Paris last year and has shown himself to be more comfortable on the surface this year, so he might do something. But he remains a player who lacks a signature shot to really do much on this surface, so until he has a massive run, that remains only a possibility.
