It’s title day in Beijing, and Djokovic continues his winning run here on these courts (now 33-0 total). Here’s a preview for today’s final at the China Open, Novak Djokovic vs. Alex de Minaur, with our predictions and best bets.
Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur
Djokovic is still perfect in Beijing, and his record at this event now stands at 33-0, with six titles in six previous trips. It hasn’t been an easy ride this week, though. He needed three sets to get past Bu Yunchaokete, 4-6, 7-6, 6-2, and again to beat top seed Alexander Zverev, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, in a 2 hour and 34 minute quarterfinal that included a ball-striking duel from both baselines. He then reached the final in dramatic fashion, leading Daniil Medvedev 7-5, 5-3 in the semis when Medvedev was disqualified for hitting a ball into the stands that struck a spectator.
At 39, Djokovic is now the oldest singles finalist at ATP 500 level since the category was introduced in 2009, and he’s chasing his 102nd tour-level title.
De Minaur, the fifth seed, is into his third final of the season and his 10th at ATP 500 level, and he’ll be looking for just a second title of the year after winning in Rotterdam back in February. He’s had his own share of battles in Beijing, with three-set wins over Quentin Halys and Andrey Rublev before reaching the final when Hubert Hurkacz retired with an adductor injury while trailing 6-4, 3-2. It’s his first final in Beijing, and he’s the second Australian to get this far after Nick Kyrgios in 2017.
With crucial Nitto ATP Finals implications on the line, this match is important, particularly since Medvedev is not expected to add any further points to his tally. Medvedev currently sits in eighth place, closely tracked by De Minaur in ninth, and Djokovic just 20 points further back in 10th.
This will be their fifth meeting, and Djokovic leads the head-to-head 3-1. De Minaur’s lone win came at the 2024 United Cup, while Djokovic took the other three, including a 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 win at the 2023 Australian Open and a four-set win at Wimbledon last year, 1-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.
Predictions and best bets
It’s a bit surprising to see Djokovic in this form after the early exit at the US Open, but he has looked very solid and he eneters the final at odds favorite at around 1.50 (-200).
This should be an interesting battle between two great movers on the court.
It’s hard to bet against a player who has never lost at a tournament though, and Djokovic has found a way through every difficult moment this week. I think the Serb, with his greater variety in his game, will add his 7th Beijing trophy to his cabinet, even if it drags out to three sets.
My bet: Djokovic to win in three sets.
