The hard-court swing is almost here and with that the last Slam of the season. The 2026 US Open arrives at the end of August with two big odds favorites on both the men’s and women’s side, as Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka look to recreate earlier success in New York.
Apart from form, injuries, heat waves and other factors can of course impact the outcome of the major tournaments in a big way, so let’s look at some challengers and odds probabilities for the men’s and women’s fields.
The Men’s Side
Carlos Alcaraz arrives as the defending champion, having beaten Sinner in the 2025 final 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4. The market prices him at approximately 35-40% implied probability, lower than Sinner’s 45-50%.
Of course, we haven’t seen Carlitos play in a long time due to his wrist injury and it’s not even certain we’ll see him at US Open this season. This fact makes it very difficult to analyse or value his current odds and it will be a gamble in the end for anyone backing the Spaniard to defend his title.
Sinner, on the other hand, has been active on tour this year and broken several records. Not at least on Masters level. The world no 1 is now back on his favorite surface and will enter the 2026 US Open as a huge favorite.
Who can challenge him? Well, Zverev is next in line in the odds and he’s been in fantastic form all season, apart from all matches vs Sinner that is… In fact, Sinner has won the last 10 battles between them and he has a massive edge in their rivalry. Djokovic will still be a threat and we can never count him out, currently at around 12.00 (+1000) to win the event.
Here are the main contenders. Some odds look tempting for a gamble, when looking at players like Auger-Aliassime, Shelton, Fritz or even Medvedev that still finds very high level of tennis at times. We must also include the chances of injuries and withdrawals to any of the top players, including Sinner.
These are the current odds for the top contenders (UK, American and Decimal odds)
- Jannik Sinner – 4/6, -150, 1.66
- Carlos Alcaraz – 15/8, +185, 2.85
- Alexander Zverev – 8/1, +800, 9.00
- Novak Djokovic – 11/1, +1100, 12.00
- Jack Draper – 20/1, +2000, 21.00
- Ben Shelton – 25/1, +2500, 26.00
- Joao Fonseca – 25/1, +2500, 26.00
- Daniil Medvedev – 25/1, +2500, 26.00
- Taylor Fritz – 25/1, +2500, 26.00
- Jakub Mensik – 40/1, +4000, 41.00
- Rafael Jodar – 40/1, +4000, 41.00
- Felix Auger-Aliassime – 40/1, +4000, 41.00
The European Stranglehold
There’s a secondary story here: European dominance of the men’s US Open has become almost European monopoly. The last non-European player to win the men’s singles title was Juan Martin del Potro in 2009. That’s 17 years ago.
Some recent winners: Wawrinka (2016), Nadal (2017), Djokovic (2018), Nadal (2019), Thiem (2020), Medvedev (2021), Alcaraz (2022), Djokovic (2023), Sinner (2024), and Alcaraz (2025). All European.
Not many players manages to win back-to-back titles at US Open. Roger Federer stands out in that regard, winning five consecutive titles from 2004-2008.
The US Open punishes mistakes severely and these hard courts can be unforgiving. The conditions are humid and taxing with a deep draw of 128 players.
The Women’s Side
Aryna Sabalenka is favored to become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three consecutive US Open titles.
As mentioned earlier, repeating at Slams is hard. Winning back-to-back is rare; three straight enters mythical status. In the modern era, only Serena Williams achieved this at the US Open (2012-2014).
Sabalenka’s first serve percentage, her aggression, experience and the World no 1’s ability to close matches on hard courts make her the favorite. However… her form has been very volatile recently during the clay and grass swings and I’m not really sure in what form she’s at the moment. Also, the WTA field is far less stratified than the men’s. Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Rybakina and others can all have hot weeks into deep runs. The women’s draw is surely more volatile, something we’ve seen both at Roland Garros and Wimbledon this year.
Here are the main odds favorites to win the women’s US Open this year:
- Aryna Sabalenka – 2/1, +200, 3.00
- Iga Swiatek – 5/1, +500, 6.00
- Elena Rybakina – 5/1, +500, 6.00
- Coco Gauff – 6/1, +600, 7.00
- Mirra Andreeva – 8/1, +800, 9.00
- Naomi Osaka – 10/1, +1000, 11.00
- Amanda Anisimova – 12/1, +1200, 13.00
- Jessica Pegula – 14/1, +1400, 15.00
- Victoria Mboko – 16/1, +1600, 17.00
The Americans?
The US Open is America’s Grand Slam, yet it hasn’t produced an American men’s singles champion since Andy Roddick in 2003. The last American woman to win was Sloane Stephens in 2017.
Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe – America’s best male players all have good ranks and have shown good form lately, still it’s unlikely any of them will lift the trophy. Coco Gauff represents Americas best hope on the women’s side, currently at around 7.00 (+600) in the odds.
The Draw
The draw, which will be made August 27, will matter more than ranking positions and it’s usually worth waiting for that before betting on winners. With the draw we’ll also have additional betting markets and options.
A player seeded 2-4 can face tougher opening-round opposition than someone seeded 5-8. An “easy” half of the draw can catapult someone toward semifinals. This is especially true in a 128-player field where first-round matchups are largely structured by seeding rather than true competitive balance.
Some traders tend to overestimate the big favorite’s inevitability while failing to see good paths of other seeds.
Alcaraz arrives with wrist concerns. Djokovic is 39 and managing fatigue. Rublev is a dark horse but not always consistent. And among the Americans, Shelton has shown flashes but hasn’t pieced together a Slam run. Fritz reached the final here in 2024, he will once again be interesting to follow.
The odds suggest Sinner-as-favorite is appropriate. But appropriate isn’t the same as inevitable.
Betting on the US Open
For those betting on tennis and tracking markets: the field holds 50-55% of title probability across all contenders. That’s a massive pool of probability sitting on non-favorites. In tennis, especially in Grand Slams, that distribution often produces surprises.
Sinner at -50% means the market believes something close to a coin flip could change outcomes. That’s respect for the competition but also uncertainty masquerading as odds.
What to Watch?
Make sure to watch the players in the hard-court events leading up to US Open, especially the Cincinnati and Montreal tournaments. Check how they are handling their various issues, wether it’s injuries, heat issues, problems with fatigue etc. A good idea is to also follow the players and their partners on social media.
Most importantly: watch the draw. More matches have been decided by draw seeding fortunate or unfortunate than by rankings differences.
The 2026 US Open is Sinner’s title to lose and Sabalenka’s to defend, but I’m pretty sure we’ll see plenty of upsets even this Slam.
