The green grass of Wimbledon awaits this week with tennis’ best heading to London for 14 days of Grand Slam action starting this Monday. Friday saw the men’s and women’s single draws released, bringing with it plenty of exciting permutations. Read on as we break down both Wimbledon draws, looking at which players we expect to advance, who has the toughest path, and what matches to watch out for early on in the tournament. Check also our post on possible surprises for Wimbledon.
Men’s Wimbledon draw
Quarter one
Seeds
- Jannik Sinner (1)
- Lorenzo Musetti (7)
- Ben Shelton (10)
- Tommy Paul (13)
- Ugo Humbert (18)
- Grigor Dimitrov (19)
- Denis Shapovalov (27)
- Brandon Nakashima (29)
Matches to watch
- Ugo Humbert vs Gael Monfils (first round)
- Lorenzo Musetti vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (first round)
World No 1 Jannik Sinner has a relatively straight-forward quarter that we expect him to progress from with little issue. The Italian has a host of physically compromised seeds – Tommy Paul, Grigor Dimitrov – and the inconsistent Denis Shapovalov in his eighth.
His quarter-final opponent by seed is Lorenzo Musetti, but we’re picking the 23-year-old to be upset before then. Musetti has been on a brilliant run of consistency, however that has to end sometime. After a long clay season, he hasn’t played on grass in the lead up to Wimbledon, and faces the tricky Nikoloz Basilashvili in his opener. Survive this, and it doesn’t get any easier, with compatriot Lorenzo Sonego and America’s Brandon Nakashima likely second- and third-round opponents.
We expect Musetti to fall at some stage over the first three rounds, with Nakashima our pick to make a run to the quarters. The world No 32 made the third round here last year, and already has wins over Dan Evans, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Learner Tien and Jacob Fearnley on grass this month. With his world-class spot-serving, he’s a good shot at navigating this section of the draw.
Ugo Humbert – who faces fellow countryman Gael Monfils in a firecracker first-round clash – and Ben Shelton are two other candidates to make it deep in this quarter. Though Humbert is a brilliant grass player, we’re not confident he’s fully recovered from his hand injury. As for Shelton, he’s susceptible to an early stumble at majors still, and has two tough matches to start with in Alex Bolt then David Goffin.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner to beat Nakashima.
Quarter two
Seeds
- Jack Draper (4)
- Novak Djokovic (6)
- Alex de Minaur (11)
- Jakub Mensik (15)
- Tomas Machac (21)
- Flavio Cobolli (22)
- Alexander Bublik (28)
Matches to watch
- Novak Djokovic vs Dan Evans (second round)
- Jack Draper vs Alexander Bublik (third round)
Expect quarter two to be far more hotly contested. British No 1 Jack Draper is technically the player seeded to advance, however No 6 seed and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic also lurks in this quarter. Throw in the red-hot Alexander Bublik and the consistency of Alex de Minaur, and this is one to watch.
Our pick is for Djokovic to advance. He’s simply been the third-best player in Grand Slams this year, and while there are some banana peels for the Serbian in his section, he’ll be laser-focussed on getting to the business end in London. The 38-year-old begins with France’s Alexandre Muller, who has had an underrated season so far. Next up he’s likely to meet Brit Dan Evans, who has a reputation for punching above his weight on grass. Then, Alex Michelsen and Alex de Minaur are likely third- and fourth-round opponents.
Chances are, Djokovic will have to go through Draper in the quarters, assuming he navigates his opening four matches. The Brit will take to Centre Court with the weight of public expectation squarely on his shoulders this Wimbledon, having risen from No 40 to No 4 over the last 12 months. Expect a nervy first few matches, but by the time he meets Bublik – who beat him at Roland-Garros – he should be settled and playing his best tennis.
Djokovic vs Draper will be a mouth-watering quarter-final, but given Djokovic’s pedigree and experience on the surface, it’s hard to pick against him provided he stays healthy.
Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic to beat Draper.
Quarter three
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (3)
- Taylor Fritz (5)
- Daniil Medvedev (9)
- Francisco Cerundolo (16)
- Karen Khachanov (17)
- Alexei Popyrin (20)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (26)
- Matteo Berrettini (32)
Matches to watch
- Taylor Fritz vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (first round)
- Francisco Cerundolo vs Nuno Borges (first round)
Quarter three is by far the most open of the Wimbledon draw. Alexander Zverev is technically the top seed, with Taylor Fritz and Daniil Medvedev the other top-10 seeds. However, grass is Zverev’s worst surface by far – he’s never been beyond the round of 16 here – while Fritz and Medvedev are both having underwhelming years.
A few dangerous seeds still lurk in Alexei Popyrin (mercurial, but has the game to succeed on grass) and Matteo Berrettini (four grass titles, former Wimbledon finalist). The likes of Gabriel Diallo and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, both unseeded players, could be dangerous too.
While it feels like a bit of a coin toss, we have Popyrin moving through from the top half of this quarter. The Aussie has the ability to run hot – ala Canada Masters 2024 – and with his big serve/forehand combination can do well on this surface. The slick bounce also mitigates his weaker backhand.
Taking down Popyrin in the quarter-finals, however, will be Berrettini. The Italian is one of the most decorated grass players in the draw this year, and though he’s just returning from injury, that’s no concern. He has a long history of playing some of his best tennis after injury layoffs. Berrettini has a potential third round against Zverev, a match that he won two years ago here. We’re tipping him to do so again.
Quarter-final prediction: Berrettini to beat Zverev.
Quarter four
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (2)
- Holger Rune (8)
- Frances Tiafoe (12)
- Andrey Rublev (14)
- Jiri Lehecka (23)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (24)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (25)
- Tallon Griekspoor (31)
Matches to watch
- Holger Rune vs Nicolas Jarry (first round)
- Learner Tien vs Nishesh Basavareddy (first round)
- Joao Fonseca vs Jacob Fearnley (first round)
- Tallon Griekspoor vs Jenson Brooksby (first round)
This is the quarter of weak seeds, dangerous unseeded players… And Carlos Alcaraz. Spoiler alert: we have Alcaraz moving through to the semi-finals. As for who he’ll play in the quarters, that’s another question.
Despite Holger Rune being the next highest seed after Alcaraz, the Spaniard is more likely to play one of Frances Tiafoe, Jiri Lehecka or Tallon Griekspoor. Rune is playing some patchy tennis at the moment, and cannot afford to be off his game as he’s staring down the barrel of three tough matches to open his Wimbledon campaign.
Griekspoor is also in a challenging section, with Jenson Brooksby up first, followed by the winner of Jacob Fearnley vs Joao Fonseca. However, the Dutchman is an excellent grass player (25-12 record ahead of the Mallorca final this weekend) and is riding a wave of form. We expect him to come out of this section and likely play Tiafoe in the round of 16, who is brilliant on this surface.
As for Alcaraz, he starts against veteran Fabio Fognini, before playing a qualifier in the second round. His first seed could be Felix Auger-Aliassime, though the Canadian hasn’t held seed at a slam in the last year. In the fourth round, either Andrey Rublev or Stefanos Tsitsipas could be waiting, neither of which will worry Alcaraz.
Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz to beat Griekspoor.
Final weekend predictions for men’s Wimbledon
- Semi – Djokovic beats Sinner
- Semi – Alcaraz beats Berrettini
- Final – Djokovic beats Alcaraz
That’s right: we’re picking this will be where Djokovic collects Grand Slam No 25. The Serbian has clearly been a top-three player at the first two majors of the year, and on grass, his game gets a boost. Looking at the tennis betting odds, a bet on Djokovic pays around 7 times the money currently.
At both the Australian Open and Roland-Garros, Djokovic found a way to pull off an upset against the first higher-ranked player he met (Alcaraz in Melbourne and Zverev in Paris). Though technically Draper will be his first of these in London, we think that will be a fairly routine win. That will leave him with plenty in the tank to upset Sinner in the semi-finals.
Do so, and he’ll be up against Alcaraz in the final. Sure, this match hasn’t gone well for him the past two years, but overall it has been a favourable matchup for Djokovic. Expect heightened levels of focus and motivation here as he’ll be well aware his chances are running out to add to his Grand Slam tally.
Women’s Wimbledon draw
Quarter one
Seeds
- Aryna Sabalenka (1)
- Madison Keys (6)
- Paula Badosa (9)
- Elina Svitolina (14)
- Donna Vekic (22)
- Elise Mertens (24)
- Leylah Fernandez (29)
- McCartney Kessler (32)
Matches to watch
- McCartney Kessler vs Marketa Vondrousova (first round)
- Paula Badosa vs Katie Boulter (first round)
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka, the heavy favorite to win Wimbledon this year, has a rather tricky quarter to navigate if she is to fulfil these expectations. The Belarusian has Madison Keys, Paula Badosa and Elina Svitolina as threatening seeds, plus a handful of other banana peels along the way too.
None of these are greater than 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova. The Czech has just returned from injury, but is already in excellent form, picking up the title in Berlin last week. There, she beat both Sabalenka and Keys, playing lights-out grass court tennis with her flat forehand and tasty slice. She doesn’t have an easy path at Wimbledon, with McCartney Kessler and Emma Raducanu standing between her and a rematch with Sabalenka.
On the balance of probability, Sabalenka should hold on and get through this section. She’s made the final four the last two times she has played Wimbledon, and is by far the most consistent woman on tour this year. Who she gets in the quarters is a little less certain, but chances are it’ll be Keys. Read more about Madison Key’s current racquet.
Quarter-final prediction: Sabalenka to beat Keys.
Quarter two
Seeds
- Jasmine Paolini (4)
- Qinwen Zheng (5)
- Diana Shnaider (12)
- Amanda Anisimova (13)
- Jelena Ostapenko (20)
- Beatriz Haddad Maia (21)
- Linda Noskova (30)
- Ashlyn Krueger (31)
Matches to watch
- Ons Jabeur vs Jelena Ostapenko (second round)
- Naomi Osaka vs Qinwen Zheng (second round)
Quarter two of the women’s draw holds plenty of opportunity. Neither of the top seeds – Jasmine Paolini and Qinwen Zheng – have looked like world-beaters this year, with records of 27-11 and 19-10 respectively. However, that doesn’t mean this section is without talent.
Youngsters Diana Shnaider, Amanda Anisimova and Linda Noskova have all proved already this season that their games work great on grass. Shnaider made the quarters in Queen’s, and has a grass title to her name from last year; Anisimova made the Queen’s final, beating Zheng; while Noskova just upset Mirra Andreeva en route to the Bad Homburg semi-finals.
Jelena Ostapenko is always a danger too, but her retirement in Eastbourne this week casts a bit of doubt on her.
Quarter-final prediction: Anisimova to beat Shnaider
Quarter three
Seeds
- Jessica Pegula (3)
- Mirra Andreeva (7)
- Emma Navarro (10)
- Karolina Muchova (15)
- Barbora Krejcikova (17)
- Ekaterina Alexandrova (18)
- Magdalena Frech (25)
- Magda Linette (27)
Matches to watch
- Barbora Krejcikova vs Alexandra Eala (first round)
- Petra Kvitova vs Emma Navarro (first round)
Jessica Pegula heads to Wimbledon as the third seed, topping quarter three. The American, not known as a grass player, has just made a career-best run in Bad Homburg this week, where she takes on Iga Swiatek in the final. Can she turn this momentum into a deep Wimbledon run? She’ll have every chance, as her quarter is quite open.
Defending champion Barbora Krejcikova is the big threat, alongside Mirra Andreeva. The pair could meet in the round of 16 though, if Krejcikova can take down Emma Navarro. Pegula, on the other hand, has a nice clear path to the quarters. We don’t think she’ll have the game to get any further, however.
Quarter-final prediction: Andreeva to beat Pegula.
Quarter four
Seeds
- Coco Gauff (2)
- Iga Swiatek (8)
- Elena Rybakina (11)
- Daria Kasatkina (16)
- Liudmila Samsonova (19)
- Clara Tauson (23)
- Marta Kostyuk (26)
- Sofia Kenin (28)
Matches to watch
- Coco Gauff vs Victoria Azarenka (second round)
The bottom quarter of the women’s Wimbledon draw is by far the most stacked of all, with three of the top four favorites all squeezed in here. A few wild cards lurk too in the form of Sofia Kenin, Victoria Azarenka and Danielle Collins.
Despite Gauff being the top seed in this section, Elena Rybakina has to be the most likely to advance. She’s a former champion, and with the power of her forehand and serve, is a force to be reckoned with on grass. Both Gauff and Swiatek are excellent players, but the surface doesn’t help their games. Unless injury strikes, expect Rybakina to be moving through here. More on Rybakina’s racquet.
Quarter-final prediction: Rybakina to beat Gauff.
Final weekend predictions for women’s Wimbledon
- Semi – Sabalenka beats Anisimova
- Semi – Rybakina beats Andreeva
- Final – Sabalenka beats Rybakina
Sabalenka has fallen short in both Grand Slam finals so far this year, but we’re tipping that it’ll be a case of third time lucky in London. The Belarusian is the picture of consistency, and her attacking tennis is helped by the fast surface of Wimbledon.
While both semis could go either way, we’re banking on Sabalenka’s hunger to make amends for her losses earlier this season to be the deciding factor.
